El Niño and the typically drier-than-usual weather it brings across much of Australia is now officially one step closer after the BoM issued an El Niño Alert this Tuesday, June 6. “The Bureau’s *ENSO [El Niño Southern Oscillation] Outlook has been shifted to El Niño ALERT, indicating a 70% chance of El Niño forming this […]
El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could combine forces to cause abnormally warm and dry weather over large areas of Australia this winter. The meteorological winter in Australia runs from June 1 until August 31. These are typically Australia’s three coldest months of the year and a time for seasonal rain and snow […]
Tropical Cyclone Mocha, which devastated Myanmar and Bangladesh earlier this month, may have set off a chain-reaction in the Indian Ocean Dipole that will lead to a hot, dry spring in Australia this year. Tropical Cyclone Mocha was a powerful system that formed in the northeastern Indian Ocean, over the Bay of Bengal, on May […]
A key atmospheric indicator in the Pacific Ocean region has just surpassed the accepted threshold for El Niño, increasing the likelihood of abnormally dry and warm weather in Australia later this year. There has been a lot of talk recently about the potential for a strong El Niño in 2023. Most of this climate driver […]
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – one of the main broad-scale mechanisms influencing Australia’s climate – just reached one if its strongest positive levels on record. What is the SAM? The SAM refers to the north-south displacement of the powerful westerly wind belt that flows around Antarctica throughout the year. These westerly winds carry the […]
Despite the ocean giving clear signs that El Niño could form later this year, a lack of feedback from the atmosphere is giving forecasters a reason to be cautious in their outlook. An abrupt period of warming across the equatorial Pacific Ocean has seen an El Niño-like pattern of sea-surface-temperature anomalies emerging in recent months. […]
Australia just had an unusually strong tropical cyclone season, despite having only six systems named inside Australia’s area of responsibility. The 2022-23 Australian tropical cyclone season officially ran from November 1, 2022, until April 30, 2023. During this six-month period, the Bureau of Meteorology assigned names to six tropical cyclones that formed inside Australia’s area […]
Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continues to intensify on Thursday morning, with a wind gust of 235 km/h recorded at 7am Rowley Shoals, a trio of tiny coral atolls located 300 km west of Broome. This is the strongest wind gust recorded anywhere in Australia since TC Debbie in 2017 Ilsa is now a Category 4 cyclone […]
A tropical cyclone is expected to develop near Australia this weekend and may make landfall along the north coast of WA mid-to-late next week. A tropical low formed on Wednesday night about 550km NNE of Darwin, above the warm tropical water of the Arafura Sea. While the low itself isn’t too impressive on satellite imagery […]
El Niño–favourable conditions are gathering pace across the tropical Pacific, with key ocean indicators approaching threshold levels and early atmospheric responses emerging. While uncertainty remains around final El Niño strength, historical analogues show that even weak events can generate widespread impacts, including reduced rainfall, warmer daytime temperatures, increased frost risk, elevated fire danger, reduced tropical cyclone activity, and more. Industries including […]
Australia has just experienced a highly impactful tropical cyclone season, with more than 60% of systems reaching severe intensity, causing widespread disruption and damage to communities and multiple industries across northern Australia. The 2025–26 Australian tropical cyclone season officially ran from 1 November 2025 to 30 April 2026. During this six-month period, Australia saw 11 tropical cyclones, with nine […]
There are signs that a very strong, or ‘super’ El Niño could develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean later this year. So, what does this mean for Australia’s weather during the second half of 2026? El Niño on the horizon The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral state, meaning neither El Niño nor […]
Intense heat from bushfires during elevated fire danger days can trigger fire-induced pyrocumulonimbus thunderstorms that ignite additional fires. In early January 2026, an extreme heatwave sweeping over southeastern Australia brought catastrophic fire danger to Victoria. Intensely hot bush and grass fires spread erratically and quickly in hot, dry and gusty winds, with pyrocumulonimbus generating lightning, […]
