A key atmospheric indicator in the Pacific Ocean region has just surpassed the accepted threshold for El Niño, increasing the likelihood of abnormally dry and warm weather in Australia later this year. There has been a lot of talk recently about the potential for a strong El Niño in 2023. Most of this climate driver […]
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – one of the main broad-scale mechanisms influencing Australia’s climate – just reached one if its strongest positive levels on record. What is the SAM? The SAM refers to the north-south displacement of the powerful westerly wind belt that flows around Antarctica throughout the year. These westerly winds carry the […]
Parts of southeast Qld just received more than a month’s worth of rain in 24 hours, with some areas on the Gold Coast collecting around 100 mm in six hours overnight. A low pressure trough and developing low pressure system produced thick clouds and widespread rain across southeast Qld and northeast NSW during Monday night […]
Heavy rain will soak parts of southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales on Monday night into Tuesday morning, with some places at risk of flooding. An upper-level trough passing over southern Qld on Monday will allow a surface trough to deepen across the southeast of the state. This deepening trough will tap into moisture-laden […]
Despite the ocean giving clear signs that El Niño could form later this year, a lack of feedback from the atmosphere is giving forecasters a reason to be cautious in their outlook. An abrupt period of warming across the equatorial Pacific Ocean has seen an El Niño-like pattern of sea-surface-temperature anomalies emerging in recent months. […]
Australia just had an unusually strong tropical cyclone season, despite having only six systems named inside Australia’s area of responsibility. The 2022-23 Australian tropical cyclone season officially ran from November 1, 2022, until April 30, 2023. During this six-month period, the Bureau of Meteorology assigned names to six tropical cyclones that formed inside Australia’s area […]
Widespread rain and thunderstorms will affect eastern Australia this weekend and early next week, with parts of eastern NSW expected to see more than 100 mm of rain by Monday. A series of cold fronts and low pressure troughs will cause showers over a broad area of southern and eastern Australia during the remainder of […]
Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continues to intensify on Thursday morning, with a wind gust of 235 km/h recorded at 7am Rowley Shoals, a trio of tiny coral atolls located 300 km west of Broome. This is the strongest wind gust recorded anywhere in Australia since TC Debbie in 2017 Ilsa is now a Category 4 cyclone […]
A tropical cyclone is expected to develop near Australia this weekend and may make landfall along the north coast of WA mid-to-late next week. A tropical low formed on Wednesday night about 550km NNE of Darwin, above the warm tropical water of the Arafura Sea. While the low itself isn’t too impressive on satellite imagery […]
Australia’s tropical cyclone season is officially underway, but we may not see much activity for few months yet. The season runs from November to April, and for mining operators and businesses across northern Australia, 2026-27 is shaping up to be a season where the headline numbers and the real risk may not line up. On […]
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is underway, but this one is unlikely to deliver the textbook dry spring and summer that businesses have come to expect from the pattern. The Bureau of Meteorology officially declared a positive IOD on Tuesday, October 27, which typically like El Niño can cause drier and warmer conditions over parts of […]
Waters off Indonesia have cooled in recent weeks, an indication that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event could be developing. It’s an important climate driver for Australia, and it could shape rainfall and temperatures heading into summer, with flow-on effects for farmers, energy and other industries. What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? The IOD […]
Leonora, WA, had its wettest September day on record earlier this month. Three weeks later, more than 1.3 million lightning pulses were detected within 800 km of the town in 48 hours. Why is a stalled trough delivering storms to mining country, and what it could mean for operations? The DTN Total Lightning Network detected […]
