Prosper in a dynamic world
Search

Could Melbourne see its coldest week in 11 years?

Melbourne is shivering through its first extremely cold morning of the week, with the potential to see one of the coldest weeks in 11 years on the horizon. 

The temperature at Olympic Park in Melbourne dropped to 3.8°C early Tuesday morning, July 2, which could be the first of many extremely cool nights.  

As of 11am, the temperature in Melbourne just reached double digits and is only expected to climb to around 13°C this afternoon.  

The cool days and nights are being caused by a very cool airmass sitting over southeastern Australia, under the influence of a stubborn high-pressure system which is not expected to move until late this week into next.  

The image below shows that the extremely cold airmass that was forecast over southeastern Australia earlier this morning. 

 Image: 850 hPa temperature (1.5km above the surface) at 4am AEST on Tuesday, July 2, according to ECMWF 

Thanks to this stagnant weather pattern, Melbourne could see a week-long run of mornings at or below 5°C. If this were to happen it would be the first time since June 2013, the coldest week in 11 years. 

The coldest morning of the week is forecast for early Wednesday morning, with Melbourne’s minimum expected to drop to 1°C, which is 5°C below the July average.  

To the west and southwest of Melbourne, along the gas distribution network, temperatures are forecast to be freezing.  

Horsham, Bendigo, Ballarat are all forecast to drop to between –1°C and -3°C on Wednesday morning, which could affect gas distribution in the regions. Thursday morning looks slightly warmer with minimums around 0°C forecast. 

The cool overnight temperatures come at a time of low wind power in Victoria which may also impact the energy grid.  

The cool morning starts will mean that temperatures should remain around 2 to 3°C below average for much of this week.  

So, when is it going to warm up and become windy again?  

Temperatures will trend to slightly above average from Sunday into early next week as the stubborn high-pressure system slowly begins to move east directing northerly winds across Vic.  

There are signs that we could finally see a cold front and strong winds move across Vic later next week, which should increase wind power in the region.  

Weatherzone Business has grown to become the outright leader within the Australian energy market, serving wind, solar, hydro, trading, utilities and network companies.

You can’t control the weather, but you can gain precision insights to optimise your response. What lights us up is providing your energy business with tailored weather information to reduce your risk and keep you moving ahead of the curve. 

Our services cover all aspects – from wind and solar generation to demand forecasts, wholesale markets to retail so, no matter where your company sits, we have solutions for you. We have worked closely with market participants to create products that meet the evolving needs of the sector, aiming to increase safety and profitability for our customers. 

Benefit from the timely delivery of accurate weather information, allowing informed and effective decision-making. To find out more, please contact us at apac.sales@dtn.com. 

Latest news

Satisfy your weather obsession with these news headlines from around the nation, and the world.

A warm, light wind spring ahead for the NEM

A strong El Niño and an unusually stable Antarctic polar vortex are setting up a spring signal of light winds, elevated solar output, and a real risk of high-intensity heatwaves for the NEM.   This forecast could be a major flip to what the National Electricity Market (NEM) has experienced so far during Winter 2026. On 1 July 2026, the NEM […]

Habagat and successive typhoons trigger widespread flooding in the Philippines

Three consecutive weeks of enhanced southwest monsoon (Habagat) and back-to-back typhoons have flooded Luzon and the Visayas, grounding flights, triggering distribution power outages, cutting off transport corridors, and raising landslide risk across mining-dense provinces like Benguet and the Cordillera. The disruption is far from over with PAGASA expecting the monsoon to remain in place until […]

Australia’s Spring 2026 Bushfire Outlook: Increased Risk Across Seven States and Territories

Fire agencies, land managers and businesses are being urged to prepare as the AFAC spring seasonal bushfire outlook, released on August 19, 2026, warns of elevated bushfire risk across Australia this season. The outlook identifies above-average fire danger across seven states and territories, with conditions driven by a combination of elevated fuel loads, an El Niño […]

Businesses under pressure: how this powerful high will affect Australian industries

A very strong high pressure system centred over Tasmania will impact southern and eastern Australia’s weather over the coming days. How strong is this high pressure system? Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) has already reached 1039.3 hPa at Ouse, Tasmania on Sunday morning, and is forecast to peak at 1041 or 1042 hPa on Monday […]