Prosper in a dynamic world
Search

Could Melbourne see its coldest week in 11 years?

Melbourne is shivering through its first extremely cold morning of the week, with the potential to see one of the coldest weeks in 11 years on the horizon. 

The temperature at Olympic Park in Melbourne dropped to 3.8°C early Tuesday morning, July 2, which could be the first of many extremely cool nights.  

As of 11am, the temperature in Melbourne just reached double digits and is only expected to climb to around 13°C this afternoon.  

The cool days and nights are being caused by a very cool airmass sitting over southeastern Australia, under the influence of a stubborn high-pressure system which is not expected to move until late this week into next.  

The image below shows that the extremely cold airmass that was forecast over southeastern Australia earlier this morning. 

 Image: 850 hPa temperature (1.5km above the surface) at 4am AEST on Tuesday, July 2, according to ECMWF 

Thanks to this stagnant weather pattern, Melbourne could see a week-long run of mornings at or below 5°C. If this were to happen it would be the first time since June 2013, the coldest week in 11 years. 

The coldest morning of the week is forecast for early Wednesday morning, with Melbourne’s minimum expected to drop to 1°C, which is 5°C below the July average.  

To the west and southwest of Melbourne, along the gas distribution network, temperatures are forecast to be freezing.  

Horsham, Bendigo, Ballarat are all forecast to drop to between –1°C and -3°C on Wednesday morning, which could affect gas distribution in the regions. Thursday morning looks slightly warmer with minimums around 0°C forecast. 

The cool overnight temperatures come at a time of low wind power in Victoria which may also impact the energy grid.  

The cool morning starts will mean that temperatures should remain around 2 to 3°C below average for much of this week.  

So, when is it going to warm up and become windy again?  

Temperatures will trend to slightly above average from Sunday into early next week as the stubborn high-pressure system slowly begins to move east directing northerly winds across Vic.  

There are signs that we could finally see a cold front and strong winds move across Vic later next week, which should increase wind power in the region.  

Weatherzone Business has grown to become the outright leader within the Australian energy market, serving wind, solar, hydro, trading, utilities and network companies.

You can’t control the weather, but you can gain precision insights to optimise your response. What lights us up is providing your energy business with tailored weather information to reduce your risk and keep you moving ahead of the curve. 

Our services cover all aspects – from wind and solar generation to demand forecasts, wholesale markets to retail so, no matter where your company sits, we have solutions for you. We have worked closely with market participants to create products that meet the evolving needs of the sector, aiming to increase safety and profitability for our customers. 

Benefit from the timely delivery of accurate weather information, allowing informed and effective decision-making. To find out more, please contact us at apac.sales@dtn.com. 

Latest news

Satisfy your weather obsession with these news headlines from around the nation, and the world.

From Kimberley to northern NSW: Bushfire outlook flags risk for resources sector this winter

Bushfire risk doesn’t usually make headlines in June, but AFAC’s winter seasonal outlook is putting mining and resources operators on alert from the Kimberley to the NSW.  Australia’s official seasonal bushfire outlook for winter 2026 was released by AFAC on Thursday, May 28. The outlook predicts increased fire risk across the northern parts of the Great Sandy Desert and surrounds […]

The signal was there weeks earlier: forecasting one of the year’s biggest wind events

In mid-May 2026, DTN APAC meteorologists flagged a strengthening Southern Ocean pattern in model guidance, signalling an extended run of record-challenging wind conditions across the NEM.  Nearly three weeks later, NEM wind generation climbed from around 1.5GW to more than 9GW, supplying roughly one-third of the grid and coming within 1GW of the all-time generation record.  The event highlighted […]

The 2026 Indian Southwest Monsoon onset is expected in the next two weeks

The Indian Southwest Monsoon will reach India in the next two weeks, but a developing El Niño could signal a drier than normal monsoon for businesses and major industries across the country. Southwest monsoon onset over southern India in the next two weeks The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is responsible for tracking the advance and […]

Rapid El Niño signal accelerating risk for Australian businesses

El Niño–favourable conditions are gathering pace across the tropical Pacific, with key ocean indicators approaching threshold levels and early atmospheric responses emerging.  While uncertainty remains around final El Niño strength, historical analogues show that even weak events can generate widespread impacts, including reduced rainfall, warmer daytime temperatures, increased frost risk, elevated fire danger, reduced tropical cyclone activity, and more. Industries including […]