Prosper in a dynamic world
Search

2024/25 tropical cyclone season outlook and names

The number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region is expected to be close to the long-term average in the official season which runs from the start of November to the end of April, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

But the BoM cautions that the likelihood of severe tropical cyclones of Category 3, 4, or 5 is higher than usual, due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures forecast for the Australian region in coming months.

Image: Sea surface temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual during the last three months of 2024, enhancing the likelihood of tropical cyclones becoming severe season. Source: BoM.

Australia sees between nine and ten tropical cyclones per season on average (the average is based on the World Meteorological Organisation’s standard 30-year baseline period from 1990 to 2020).

On average, four make landfall (cross the Australian coastline) while five are severe.

Image: Stats on tropical cyclones in the Australian region.

The graph below shows the number of tropical cyclones year-by-year in the Australian region since 1980.

While the data shows that the last two seasons had a below-average number of cyclones, it’s worth noting that more than half of the cyclones in both seasons were classed as severe.

Image: Tropical cyclone frequency in Australia since 1980.

The graph also shows years in which there was an EL Niño (red bar) or a La Niña (blue bar) event.

As you can see, El Niño events are very well correlated with the quietest seasons on record, like in 1987-88, 2006-07, and 2015-16. The relationship is not quite as strong with La Niña, but many of the most active seasons occurred during La Niña years, including 1983-84, 1995-96, and 1998-99.

Currently in Australia we are not experiencing an EL Niño or La Niña, although the scales appear to be tipping in favour of a La Niña event developing during tropical cyclone season.

Meanwhile the first cyclone that forms this season will be named “Robyn”.

How do they name cyclones?

The BoM keeps a list of approved names, in alphabetical order by the first letter. It alternates between male and female names. Each name is a single word, usually a given name.

It would be unprecedented in the age of meteorological record-keeping to see 20 cyclones in the Australian region over the course of one season, but just in case the average total of nine to ten is doubled, here are the next 20 names, in order.

Robyn, Sean, Taliah, Vince, Zelia, Anthony, Bianca, Courtney, Dianne, Errol, Fina, Grant, Hayley, Iggy, Jenna, Koji, Luana, Mitchell, Narelle, Oran.

Weatherzone provides our clients with detailed Tropical Cyclone, wet season, thunderstorm, heavy rainfall and extreme heat seasonal forecasts, helping businesses prepare for the upcoming cyclone season. For more information, please visit our website or email us at apac.sales@dtn.com.

Latest news

Satisfy your weather obsession with these news headlines from around the nation, and the world.

La Niña more likely this year after BoM switches to new index – what does this mean for Australian businesses?

The likelihood of La Niña occurring in 2025 has increased due to a change in the way the Bureau of Meteorology calculates sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean. What is La Niña? La Niña refers to a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean. When La Niña is […]

Southern Hemisphere’s polar vortex is weakening – here’s what this means for Australian weather

Stratospheric warming high above Antarctica could cause the Southern Hemisphere’s polar vortex to weaken at an unusually fast pace over the coming weeks. This weakened polar vortex has the potential to affect weather patterns across Australia and other parts of the Southern Hemisphere. What is the polar vortex? The polar vortex is a large circulating […]

Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flooding rainfall lash out over NSW businesses and industries

Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flooding rainfall have disrupted transport, rail, aviation and many other industries across NSW as a low pressure system tracked over the state. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in western NSW A tornado was observed near the town of Young on the South West Slopes of New South Wales around 3:30pm on Wednesday […]

Wild night of rain, wind and surf coming for Sydney and surrounds disrupting port, transport and energy utility industries

Intense and disruptive thunderstorms, rain, strong winds and large surf will develop along eastern NSW later today, bringing localised areas of flooding and hazardous driving conditions. A cut-off low currently tracking over western NSW, is bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to the region. This burst of early spring storms already marks the wettest September day […]