Prosper in a dynamic world
Search

Melbourne’s coldest October spell in a decade?

After its driest September on record with average maximum temps almost three degrees above average, Melbourne is into its third day of a cold October outbreak, and that wintry feeling is not going anywhere for a few days yet.

In fact, Melbourne could be looking at its coldest six-day run of October maximum temperatures for at least a decade, and possibly its coldest October week in two decades.

Here are Melbourne’s recorded or forecast max temps from this Wednesday to next Tuesday.

  • Wed Oct 4 – 13.5°C
  • Thurs Oct 5 – 16.5°C
  • Fri Oct 6 – 15°C (forecast)
  • Sat Oct 7 – 15°C (forecast)
  • Sun Oct 8 – 17°C (forecast)
  • Mon Oct 9 – 16°C (forecast)
  • Tues Oct 10 – 18°C (forecast)

If Melbourne stays colder than 17 degrees until the end of Monday, then it’ll be the first time since 2013 that the city has gone six straight October days without exceeding that mark.

If Tuesday falls a degree short of the predicted top of 18°C, then it’ll be Melbourne’s coldest October week (as in any seven-day run, not just Mon to Sun) in two decades.

Why the spring chill?

Wednesday’s cold front obviously opened the door for this spell of unseasonably cool weather. Sometimes the effects of a cold front only last a day or two in southern Victoria, as winds swing back to the west or northwest. Not this time.

This Friday night’s synoptic chart shows why.

That high pressure system centred over the Great Australian Bight is like your mate who crashed on the couch on grand final night and is still sleeping there.

The high is not expected to track east over the Tasman Sea until next Wednesday, which means a cool southwesterly or southerly airstream will continue to be funnelled Melbourne’s way. Winds won’t be strong, so nights will be cool as well.

  • This cool spell and the 32.6 mm of rain it has brought is welcome relief for Melburnians after the city’s driest September on record with just 10.8 mm of rain
  • As mentioned at the top, September was also very warm. Melbourne’s average maximum of 20.1°C was 2.8°C above the long-term average

Elsewhere in Victoria, the flood threat continues after extremely heavy midweek rain in some areas, while it is easing in East Gippsland. Please check our warnings page or our app for more info.

Latest news

Satisfy your weather obsession with these news headlines from around the nation, and the world.

Signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, but it may not follow the textbook

Waters off Indonesia have cooled in recent weeks, an indication that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event could be developing. It’s an important climate driver for Australia, and it could shape rainfall and temperatures heading into summer, with flow-on effects for farmers, energy and other industries.  What is the Indian Ocean Dipole?  The IOD […]

1.3 million lightning strikes and a record September downpour: the storms testing WA’s Goldfields

Leonora, WA, had its wettest September day on record earlier this month. Three weeks later, more than 1.3 million lightning pulses were detected within 800 km of the town in 48 hours. Why is a stalled trough delivering storms to mining country, and what it could mean for operations?  The DTN Total Lightning Network detected […]

A very low wind power week, likely to continue

A stubborn blocking high over southern Australia will make for a very quiet week for wind generation and the pattern behind it isn’t a one-off.   It’s the seasonal signature of a super (very strong) El Niño combined with a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and both the historical record and the current seasonal forecast suggest it’s likely to keep recurring through spring before a potential switch from November.  The setup right […]

Fastest strengthening El Niño on record: Impacts on Australian monsoon timing and wet season planning

Australia’s Mining and Resources sectors are bracing for a wet season shaped by one of the most rapidly developing El Niño events on record.    Looking back at how the strongest El Niño events in Australian history have played out, it becomes apparent that mining operations in Australia should be planning for a later monsoon […]