Fires were triggered in central NSW by dry lightning on Wednesday as high-based severe thunderstorms tracked over the region which also produced damaging winds.
The satellite loop below shows a cloudband moving over NSW on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Clear skies through the earlier part of the day allowed ample surface heating, helping fuel and trigger high-based thunderstorms embedded in the cloudband.
Image: Visible satellite imagery, radar (green) and lightning (purple) on the afternoon and evening of Wednesday, October 8, 2025.
Below the cloudband, hot and dry northwesterly winds made for a very dry sub-cloud layer that rapidly evaporated any precipitation from the cloudband and thunderstorms.
By the time the first round of thunderstorms had moved off into the Tasman Sea, the most rainfall accumulated in a rain gauge was about 3 mm at Shooters Hill, south of Oberon.
Image: DTN Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) and observed rainfall since 9am across the region to 9pm.
Wednesday’s mostly dry thunderstorms followed a relatively dry spell in the preceding 4-5 weeks, which resulted from a rare Sudden Stratosphere Warming (SSW) event above Antarctica in September and early October. This prolonged lack of rain has primed the vegetation in the region for fire.
DTN’s Total Lightning Network (TLN) recorded over 16,500 lightning strikes within 300km of Lithgow between 4pm and 10pm on Wednesday. Of these strikes, 2,545 were cloud-to-ground lightning capable of igniting fires, shorting power networks and striking people.
Image: DTN APAC’s TLN detected 16,558 lightning strikes within 300 kilometres of Lithgow between 4pm and 10pm AEDT on Wednesday, October 7, 2025.
The NSW Rural Fire Service was managing over 40 active fires across NSW when response to at least 2 additional bushfires was needed following the passage of the thunderstorms in the Oberon region.
Image: NSW RFS fires and DTN’s TLN reporting lightning over a fire ground west of Oberon as seen on the DTN APAC Stormtracker dashboard.
The very dry layer below the cloudband, along with strong winds in the upper parts of the atmosphere also brought damaging wind gusts to the region. The strongest wind gusts reported were:
- 98km/h at Bellambi (Illawarra)
- 96km/h at High Range (Illawarra)
- 82km/h at Mudgee (Central Tablelands)
- 80km/h at Cessnock (Hunter)
- 78km/h at Orange (Central Tablelands) and Merriwa (Hunter)
Strong and gusty winds help fan bushfire flames and promote erratic, unpredictable fire behaviour, making it difficult for fire management agencies to contain them.
Active thunderstorm period in the coming days
Unfortunately for fire management agencies, thunderstorms are once again on the cards for central and northern NSW on Thursday, before moving into northeastern NSW and Queensland on Friday.
Image: GFS Thunderstorm forecast at 5pm AEDT on Thursday, October 9, 2025 as seen in the DTN APAC Stormtracker dashboard.
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected to develop with a broad low pressure trough over the Northern Territory, northern South Australia, NSW and Queensland this weekend. Enhancing this thunderstorm activity will be very warm conditions across central and eastern Australia, bringing an elevated bushfire risk period lasting until early next week.
Image: GFS thunderstorm forecast at 2pm AEDT on Sunday, October 12, 2025.
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