Prosper in a dynamic world
Search

Australia’s warmest La Niña-only year on record

 

While Australia just had its coolest year in nine years, it was also the country’s warmest La Niña-only year on record. 

The national mean temperature in 2021 was 0.56ºC above the 1961-1990 average. This was the 19th warmest year in records dating back to 1910. 

However, 2021 was a cool year by modern standards. 

The influence of La Niña and several other rain-inducing climate drivers helped limit heating over Australia in 2021. This made it the country’s coolest year since 2012. 

La Niña reduces daytime temperatures in Australia and has been known to mask the warming signal in Australia’s climate. The graph below shows that 2021 was Australia’s warmest La Niña-only year on record, despite being the coolest year in almost a decade. 

 la-nina-years

Image: Australia’s mean temperature anomalies for each year from 1910 to 2021. The blue bars show years in which La Niña began, that were not also affected by El Niño. The orange bars show years in which El Niño began, that were not also affected by La Niña. The grey bars were either ENSO neutral years or contained both La Niña and El Niño. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. 

Rainfall in 2021 

Australia also had a relatively wet year in 2021, with the country as a whole registering its wettest year in five years. 

It was particularly wet in NSW and western Victoria, as well as pockets of QLD, WA and far northern Australia, with annual rainfall in the highest 10 percent of historical in these areas. 

 map-rain-decile-year

Image: Observed rainfall deciles during 2021, with blue areas showing above-average rain, red areas below-average rain and white areas near-average rain. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. 

Most months in 2021 saw near or above-average rainfall when averaged across Australia, with February, March and November standing out as particularly wet months. November 2021 was Australia’s wettest November on record. 

 MicrosoftTeams-image (214)

Image: Australia’s monthly mean rainfall during 2021 (green bars), compared to each month’s long-term average (grey bars). Source Bureau of Meteorology. 

NSW saw a lot of rain in early autumn last year, which resulted in the state’s second wettest March on record. This helped the state register its wettest year in 11 years. 

What is La Niña up to now? 

Large parts of Australia have continued to see above-average rainfall at the start of 2022 as La Niña continues to influence our weather.  

Recent observations in the Pacific Ocean suggest that La Niña has passed its peak and is starting to weaken. However, it typically takes several months for La Niña to break down and as a result, it should continue to influence Australia’s weather into the start of autumn. 

 figure1

Image: Latest ENSO forecast from the Columbia Climate School International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The bars show the probability of La Niña (blue), El Niño (red) and neutral (grey) for each month from now until early spring in the Southern Hemisphere. Source: CPC/IRI 

Weatherzone provides our clients with detailed seasonal forecasts which are tailored to the specific business and operations, for more information, please contact us at apac.sales@dtn.com.

Latest news

Satisfy your weather obsession with these news headlines from around the nation, and the world.

Signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, but it may not follow the textbook

Waters off Indonesia have cooled in recent weeks, an indication that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event could be developing. It’s an important climate driver for Australia, and it could shape rainfall and temperatures heading into summer, with flow-on effects for farmers, energy and other industries.  What is the Indian Ocean Dipole?  The IOD […]

1.3 million lightning strikes and a record September downpour: the storms testing WA’s Goldfields

Leonora, WA, had its wettest September day on record earlier this month. Three weeks later, more than 1.3 million lightning pulses were detected within 800 km of the town in 48 hours. Why is a stalled trough delivering storms to mining country, and what it could mean for operations?  The DTN Total Lightning Network detected […]

A very low wind power week, likely to continue

A stubborn blocking high over southern Australia will make for a very quiet week for wind generation and the pattern behind it isn’t a one-off.   It’s the seasonal signature of a super (very strong) El Niño combined with a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and both the historical record and the current seasonal forecast suggest it’s likely to keep recurring through spring before a potential switch from November.  The setup right […]

Fastest strengthening El Niño on record: Impacts on Australian monsoon timing and wet season planning

Australia’s Mining and Resources sectors are bracing for a wet season shaped by one of the most rapidly developing El Niño events on record.    Looking back at how the strongest El Niño events in Australian history have played out, it becomes apparent that mining operations in Australia should be planning for a later monsoon […]