Prosper in a dynamic world
Search

Catastrophic bushfire danger in central NSW

 

Hot, dry and windy weather is elevating bushfires & fire danger across parts of NSW on Thursday, ahead of a cool and fierce southerly change. 

Maximum temperatures across parts of the state are expected to be 5-10°C above the October average, with temperatures climbing into the mid 30’s.

The hot airmass has been dragged towards NSW by hot and gusty northwesterly winds ahead of a strong cold front.  

The map below shows the cold front sweeping across Victoria on Thursday morning, with clear skies ahead of it helping the temperatures soar in NSW. 

Image: Himawari satellite image at 10am AEDT on Thursday, October 12 

In addition to the hot temperatures, dry and gusty northwesterly winds could add fuel to the bushfires on Thursday afternoon.

Image: EC instantaneous wind gust forecast at 5pm AEDT on Thursday, October 12.

Locally catastrophic fire danger is forecast in the state’s central west, with winds in Dubbo forecast to reach a mean wind speed of 35km/h with gusts up to 45km/h. 

Image: Forecast fire danger on Thursday at 5pm AEDT, Source: BOM

Extreme fire danger is forecast for parts of the Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney, Northwestern, Upper Central West Plains and Lower Central West Plains on Thursday, with total fire bans in place for these districts too. 

Severe thunderstorms are possible in the central west during the afternoon which could bring damaging winds to the area, increasing the fire danger further in the region. 

Damaging winds are also forecast across the southern NSW coast on Thursday afternoon, as a strong gusty change moves quickly up the coast in the afternoon and evening.  Wind gusts may exceed 90km/h in this area providing a challenge to crews attending fires in the area.  

This southerly change is expected in Sydney around 8-9pm AEDT providing some relief to Sydneysiders as the temperature plummets behind the change.  

 The image below shows forecast air temperatures around 1.5km above sea level on Thursday, revealing the dramatic temperatures contrast ahead and behind the southerly change.

 

Image: 850Hpa Temperature at 2pm AEDT on Thursday, October 12.

Fire danger and severe weather warnings have been issued today, keep an eye out for the latest warnings and forecasts as the day unfolds.  

Latest news

Satisfy your weather obsession with these news headlines from around the nation, and the world.

Habagat and successive typhoons trigger widespread flooding in the Philippines

Three consecutive weeks of enhanced southwest monsoon (Habagat) and back-to-back typhoons have flooded Luzon and the Visayas, grounding flights, triggering distribution power outages, cutting off transport corridors, and raising landslide risk across mining-dense provinces like Benguet and the Cordillera. The disruption is far from over with PAGASA expecting the monsoon to remain in place until […]

Australia’s Spring 2026 Bushfire Outlook: Increased Risk Across Seven States and Territories

Fire agencies, land managers and businesses are being urged to prepare as the AFAC spring seasonal bushfire outlook, released on August 19, 2026, warns of elevated bushfire risk across Australia this season. The outlook identifies above-average fire danger across seven states and territories, with conditions driven by a combination of elevated fuel loads, an El Niño […]

Businesses under pressure: how this powerful high will affect Australian industries

A very strong high pressure system centred over Tasmania will impact southern and eastern Australia’s weather over the coming days. How strong is this high pressure system? Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) has already reached 1039.3 hPa at Ouse, Tasmania on Sunday morning, and is forecast to peak at 1041 or 1042 hPa on Monday […]

Northwest Cloudband looms despite sunny and dry outlook

A thick cloudband will stretch thousands of kilometres next week from the warm tropical waters off northwest Australia to southeastern Australia, bringing rain and low solar output despite a sunny, dry seasonal outlook.   The cloudy week may come as a surprise given the warm, dry, and sunny climate drivers currently in play – a very strong El Niño and a […]