Prosper in a dynamic world
Search

Southerly buster and large swell hitting NSW

 

A strong southerly change will move up the NSW coast on Monday, whipping up a large southerly swell in its wake. 

The fierce winds are associated with a low-pressure system sitting in the Tasman Sea which is extending a cold front along the NSW coast.  

The southerly buster has already hit far eastern VIC and the NSW coast with Gabo Island recording a 107km/h wind gust and a mean wind speed of 70km/h on Monday morning. 

READ MORE: What is a southerly buster? 

Ahead of the change, gusty westerly winds are expected to impact parts of the state, with mean wind speeds reaching 20 knots and gusting up to 30 knots at Port Botany and Sydney Airport. 

The gusty southwesterly is expected to reach Sydney and Port Botany at around 4pm AEDT on Monday afternoon, October 16. 

The map below shows the gusty southerly change near the Hunter region later Monday afternoon. 

Image: ECMWF forecast wind gusts at 5pm on Monday, October 16. 

A large southerly swell will also move up the NSW coastline on Monday afternoon and evening.  

The map below shows significant wave heights could reach five metres offshore the NSW central coast early on Tuesday morning. 

Image: Wave Watch III significant wave heigh at 5am Tuesday, October 16.  

The remainder of the NSW seaboard could see swells reaching 3-4 metres from late Monday into Tuesday, as the hefty swell moves up the coastline. 

The beaches along the NSW coast that face the south could see some erosion with this swell. 

Looking ahead, the winds and swell will ease on Wednesday morning as the low continues to move east away from Australia.

DTN APAC offers a comprehensive suite of services, refined through years of collaboration with the marine, ports, insurance and offshore industries, to optimise the safety and efficiency of your operations.  

 We work with you to understand your intrinsic operational challenges and customise high-precision forecasting, met-ocean, insurance and aviation services to your exact location and operational scope. For more information, please contact us at apac.sales@dtn.com. 

 

Latest news

Satisfy your weather obsession with these news headlines from around the nation, and the world.

From Kimberley to northern NSW: Bushfire outlook flags risk for resources sector this winter

Bushfire risk doesn’t usually make headlines in June, but AFAC’s winter seasonal outlook is putting mining and resources operators on alert from the Kimberley to the NSW.  Australia’s official seasonal bushfire outlook for winter 2026 was released by AFAC on Thursday, May 28. The outlook predicts increased fire risk across the northern parts of the Great Sandy Desert and surrounds […]

The signal was there weeks earlier: forecasting one of the year’s biggest wind events

In mid-May 2026, DTN APAC meteorologists flagged a strengthening Southern Ocean pattern in model guidance, signalling an extended run of record-challenging wind conditions across the NEM.  Nearly three weeks later, NEM wind generation climbed from around 1.5GW to more than 9GW, supplying roughly one-third of the grid and coming within 1GW of the all-time generation record.  The event highlighted […]

The 2026 Indian Southwest Monsoon onset is expected in the next two weeks

The Indian Southwest Monsoon will reach India in the next two weeks, but a developing El Niño could signal a drier than normal monsoon for businesses and major industries across the country. Southwest monsoon onset over southern India in the next two weeks The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is responsible for tracking the advance and […]

Rapid El Niño signal accelerating risk for Australian businesses

El Niño–favourable conditions are gathering pace across the tropical Pacific, with key ocean indicators approaching threshold levels and early atmospheric responses emerging.  While uncertainty remains around final El Niño strength, historical analogues show that even weak events can generate widespread impacts, including reduced rainfall, warmer daytime temperatures, increased frost risk, elevated fire danger, reduced tropical cyclone activity, and more. Industries including […]