A developing tropical low to the north of WA’s Kimberley coast may become a tropical cyclone later this week, although this time its unlikely to directly hit the mining hubs and ports in the Pilbara and Kimberley.
The animation below shows the sun rising over a tropical low located in the Timor Sea to the west of Darwin. This low has been producing thunderstorms and showing clear signs of rotation over the past 24 hours, which are both signs of a developing low pressure system.
Image: Day/night satellite images showing a developing tropical low over the Timor Sea on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
Environmental conditions will be favourable for this tropical low to gain strength as it moves towards the west in the next few days.
One factor that will support the system’s development in the coming days is the abnormally warm water sitting off Australia’s northwest cost. Sea surface temperatures will be hovering around 29-30°C in low’s predicted future path, which is considerably warmer than the 26.5°C threshold that’s required to induce cyclogenesis (the formation of a tropical cyclone).
Image: Sea surface temperatures to the north of WA on Monday, February 17, 2024. SourceL Bureau of Meteorology
Despite the favourable environment for further strengthening in the next few days, there is quite a lot of uncertainty between forecast models and agencies.
The Bureau of Meteorology currently give this system a 35 to 45% chance of being a tropical cyclone towards the end of this week and early next week.
However, an ensemble model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gives a 70% probability of tropical cyclone formation towards the end of this week.
Image: Probability that a tropical cyclone will occur within a 300km radius of a given location within a time window of 48 hours. Source: ECMWF
Most forecast sources agree that, regardless of this system strength, it is likely to move towards the west-southwest in the coming days and remain away from the Australian mainland until at least early next week.
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