A weeklong run of heat is on the horizon for Adelaide, with daily maximum temperatures expected to remain in the 30’s for at least seven days from this Friday.
This will be the first time Adelaide has seen a run of seven days over 30C since January 2023, when the city saw 8 days above 30°C.
A ‘train’ of high-pressure systems in the Bight and Tasman Sea are expected to force cold fronts and their associated cooler airmasses south during the next 5-7 days.
This is in response to a strong sub-tropical ridge over Australian longitudes, which is commonly associated with prolonged heat.
The image below shows the low-pressure systems ‘hugging’ Antarctica, as the Sub-tropical Ridge squeezes them south.
Image: ECWMF 500 hPa geopotential height 850 hPa temperature
This pattern will cause heat to linger across parts of SA, Vic and western NSW from late this week well into next.
The map below shows a low intensity heatwave forecast for much of SA for three days from Sunday, while severe heatwave conditions are impacting western SA and much of WA.
Image: Heatwave severity forecast for three days starting Sunday, February 18.
The heat is expected to peak on Sunday and Monday and potentially later in the working week in Adelaide, with temperatures reaching the mid to high 30’s
The map below shows the maximum temperatures are forecast to reach the high 20’s to low 40’s across much of SA on Sunday.
Image: Maximum temperature forecast for Sunday, February 18, according to ECMWF.
A cold front is expected to sweep across southeastern Aus next Thursday, February 22, which could bring a cooler airmass into Adelaide.
Ahead of this cold front, the southeast could see strong, dry and hot northerly winds which could bring severe fire danger to the region.
At this stage it is uncertain how far north this cool airmass will move. If it slips to the south, it looks like Adelaide could remain hot until the weekend beginning Saturday, February 24.
For more information on our energy forecasts, please contact us at apac.sales@dtn.com
