Ports across NSW and Qld are on high alert as Tropical Cyclone Alfred is set to produce damaging winds, large and powerful surf and coastal erosion in the coming days.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is currently sitting around 600km off Brisbane and is travelling southeast but is expected to make a right turn towards southeast Qld later on Tuesday. Alfred is now expected to make landfall between the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast late Thursday into Friday.
The strong winds near Alfreds centre are reaching around 95km/h and with gusts up to 130km/h and are whipping up large waves in the region.
A massive wave 9.59 metres high was observed offshore Brisbane on Monday evening, with other buoys in southeast Qld seeing wave heights rising gradually over the past 48 hours.
Image: Brisbane offshore wave monitoring showing the significant (green) and maximum wave heights (blue) increasing over the past few days. Source: The State of Queensland 2025
The significant wave height is the average height of the highest one-third of waves in an area, while a maximum wave is the highest individual wave.
These waves are expected to increase overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, with significant wave heights reaching 6 to 8 metres across some parts of Southeast Qld and northeast NSW, with waves offshore possibly reaching 9 to 10 metres. The large waves will also extend into central parts of NSW, with Newcastle’s waves reaching around 3 to 4 metres of Wednesday. Maximum wave heights in the region could reach 14 to 16 metres in the coming days.
Image: DTN’s OneFX significant wave height at 10am AEDT on Wednesday, March 5
These waves will combine with abnormally high tides and water levels could exceed the highest tide of the year this evening.
The combination of the high tides and waves will likely cause significant coastal erosion over the coming days between Sandy Cape and Yamba.
Looking ahead, waves should reduce on Friday after the cyclone crosses however significant wave heights of 3 to 4 metres could continue into the weekend for northeast NSW and southeast Qld.
Damaging wind gusts will also develop between Tewantin and Coffs Harbour coasts on Wednesday as the cyclone approaches. The strength of these winds will depend on the cyclones category as it nears and crosses. At this stage Alfred will either be a category one or two cyclone when it crosses with gusts reaching 120 to 160 km/h possible near the point of landfall.
The image below shows one model’s wind gust forecast for Thursday afternoon, with the purple and navy-blue shades showing damaging wind gusts impacting the coast as Alfred nears.
Image: Instantaneous wind gusts at 4pm AEST on Thursday, March 6, according to ECMWF
The damaging winds should ease Friday into Saturday as the system moves inland and weakens below cyclone strength. Heavy rainfall will also impact port operations in the coming days, particularly those near and to the south of the cyclone with onshore winds bringing an influx of moisture to the region.
The conditions over the coming days will challenge port operations across southeast Qld and northeast NSW as Alfred etches towards the region and our meteorologists are providing daily personalised briefings to our clients.
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