In early January 2026, an extreme heatwave sweeping over southeastern Australia brought catastrophic fire danger to Victoria. Intensely hot bush and grass fires spread erratically and quickly in hot, dry and gusty winds, with pyrocumulonimbus generating lightning, sparking more fires. During these intense fire weather conditions, meteorologists, fire management agencies and industries rely on DTN APAC services to detect, visualise and predict where, when and how fires will behave.

Image: Active firegrounds, bushfire smoke and pyrocumulus from a bushfire near Euroa, Victoria, on January 9, 2026. Source: Levin Barrett (Threads / @rareview.photography)

Catastrophic Fire Danger Rating (FDR) and Fire Behaviour Index (FBI)

The Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) is a four-tiered national rating system that describes the potential level of danger on a given day, should a fire start.

Australia’s daily fire danger ratings are calculated using observations about the current state of the bushfire fuel, combined with forecasts from weather and fire behaviour models.

There are four levels in the AFDRS, with each rating also carrying a simple message to encourage appropriate action to protect lives:

1. Moderate: Plan and prepare.
2. High: Prepare to act.
3. Extreme: Take action now to protect your life and property.
4. Catastrophic: For your survival, leave bush fire risk areas.

On days with moderate fire danger, people and businesses are advised to stay up to date and be ready to act if there is a fire. These are days with a Fire Behaviour Index (FBI) value between 12 and 23.

High fire danger means there is a heightened risk, and people and organisation environmental risk managers should be alert for fires in their area and decide what they will do if a fire starts. If a fire does start, life, property and assets may be at risk. The safest option is to avoid bushfire risk areas on these days. These are days with a Fire Behaviour Index (FBI) value between 24 and 49.

When there is extreme fire danger, conditions are dangerous, and people and industries should reconsider travel and operations through bushfire risk areas. It is important to check bushfire plans and ensure that properties and assets are fire ready. If a fire starts, immediate action is essential. If any people or property are not prepared to the highest level under these conditions, relocation to a safer location well before the fire impacts is needed. These are days with a Fire Behaviour Index (FBI) value between 50 and 99.

The highest level of fire danger in Australia is catastrophic fire danger. These are the most dangerous conditions for a fire. Life may depend on the decisions made, even before there is a fire. Preparation and relocation of personnel and assets should be completed by early in the morning or the night before if possible. Homes and some buildings cannot withstand fires in these conditions and if a fire starts, evacuation may no longer be possible, and help may not be available. These are days with a Fire Behaviour Index (FBI) value of 100 or higher, and feature weather conditions comparable to some of Australia’s worse fire days such as Black Friday in 1939, Ash Wednesday in 1983, Black Saturday in 2009, and days during the Black Summer of 2019-20.

While fire danger ratings give useful information about the potential level of danger, they don’t guarantee that a fire will start, nor do they give any information about current fires.

Image: Australian fire danger ratings and corresponding FBI values. Source: AFAC

Catastrophic fire danger ratings were forecast on Friday, January 9, 2026 for parts of northern and western Victoria. FBI values reached catastrophic levels at various locations in Victoria and southeast South Australia as hot, dry and gusty northwesterly winds blew into southeastern Australia. Peak FBI values reached:

• 121 at Mount Gellibrand
• 120 at Horsham
• 113 at Longerenong
• between 100 and 110 at 11 other locations, including Melbourne Airport and Avalon Airport

What are pyrocumulus (and pyrocumulonimbus) and how can they trigger more fires?

Pyrocumulonimbus (also known as cumulonimbus flammagenitus) are fire-induced thunderstorm clouds.

Similarly to regular thunderstorms, which need a trigger to push warm and humid air into unstable parts of the atmosphere, pyrocumulonimbus spawn from the intense bushfire heat piercing the warm and moist lower atmosphere air through a stable layer into the unstable atmosphere. From there, the warm and moist air can rise (and cool) into unstable cumulus and cumulonimbus (thunderstorm) clouds.

Image: Intense heat from fires lifts warm and moist air into unstable parts of the atmosphere, generating fire-induced pyrocumulonimbus thunderstorm clouds. Source: DTN

Once developed into a full-fledged pyrocumulonimbus, normal thunderstorm behaviour leads to lightning through friction between the updrafts and downdrafts of the cloud. During extreme and catastrophic fire weather days, the lower parts of the atmosphere are nearly always dry. Most of the rain from pyrocumulonimbus evaporates under the cloud, with only lightning reaching the ground.

Image: Bushfire smoke and pyrocumulonimbus from a bushfire near Euroa, Victoria, on January 9, 2026. Source: Levin Barrett (Threads / @rareview.photography)

Dry lightning from pyrocumulonimbus clouds is exceptionally dangerous as new fires can quickly ignite. Along with dry lightning igniting new fires, pyrocumulonimbus can also bring:

• Erratic and unexpected direction and intensity changes: the powerful down drafts bring changing gusty winds in any direction, which fan bush and grass fires, making fire management and containment exceptionally difficult.
• Spot fires: ambers from fires can be drawn into the strong updrafts and ignite spot fires far downwind, which greatly increases the area of concern and monitoring for fire management agencies.

Climate change is also changing temperature, fuel, moisture and weather patterns, indicating increasingly earlier starts to bushfire seasons across southern and eastern Australia, with more intense conditions during the peak fire danger seasons. Pyrocumulonimbus and dry lightning has also become a more common phenomenon over recent decades (Canberra in 2003, 2009 Black Saturday, 2019-20 Black Summer). This is indicative of a long-term trend across southeastern Australia that could become increasingly common.

Image: Smoke from fires in eastern Victoria being blown across the Tasman Sea in early January 2020.

How DTN helps fire agencies detect and monitor pyrocumulus and fire risk

Ahead of peak fire danger periods, DTN APAC’s Opticast forecasting system highlights days and hours of dangerous fire danger. This allows industries such as power utilities, mining and transport to assess and prepare for hazardous fire danger days well in advance, and know when it’s safe to return to normal.

Our trusted nowcasting and forecasting system, OpticastTM, is independently proven to outperform other industry models, allowing you to respond rapidly to changing conditions. Opticast can ingest data from your on-site weather observation equipment, ensuring your forecast is customised to your local microclimate. From nowcasting and 14-day forecasting to seasonal outlooks, you have powerful, hyper-local weather alerting and intelligence, giving you decisive confidence when it’s most needed.

Image: Smoke from a bushfire near Tallangatta, Victoria, on January 9, 2026. Source: Instagram / @thetrippinfoodies

When dangerous fire weather conditions are occurring, DTN APAC’s Stormtracker Dashboard is an essential detection and monitoring tool used by affected businesses and fire management agencies. Using satellite, lightning detection, radar and weather observation data, areas of dangerous fire danger, new and active fires, and pyrocumulonimbus can be detected and monitored in real time.

As seen in the video below, the smoke plume of an active fire burning over Victoria’s northwest on Friday, January 9, 2026, can be seen on satellite imagery. Overlaid FBI observations can be seen reaching catastrophic levels as hot, dry and gusty northwesterly winds pushed across Victoria. Throughout the afternoon, the gusty southwesterly wind change moved over the fire grounds, dangerously fanning flames into a new direction.

Video: Satellite, radar and lightning imagery as seen on the DTN APAC Stormtracker Dashboard showing catastrophic fire weather dangerously spreading an active fire over Victoria’s northwest on Friday, January 9, 2026. Source: DTN

Focusing on the fire burning in the northwest of the state, pyrocumulus and then pyrocumulonimbus are detected by satellite and radar imagery. Lightning is then detected by DTN’s Total Lightning Network, providing pinpoint accuracy on possible dry lightning strikes that might ignite the next fire. As the southwesterly change moves over the region, the new fire ground to the southeast can be seen through the new plume of smoke. Country Fire Authority (CFA) active fires overlaid also show the location of the new fire ground.

Video: Satellite, radar and lightning imagery as seen on the DTN APAC Stormtracker Dashboard showing pyrocumulonimbus cloud from a fire in Victoria’s Mallee region sparking another fire downwind on a dangerous fire weather day on Friday, January 9, 2026. Source: DTN

The catastrophic fire weather across the state led to nearly 100,000 customers without power as heat and nearby fires tripped electrical utility networks. As much as 400,000 hectares were burnt in the state’s biggest fire emergency since the Black Summer, with one person tragically killed and more than 350 homes or buildings destroyed.

The fatality occurred in the Longwood Fire which covered the largest area of any bushfire in the emergency. Satellite imagery reveals a large patch of scorched countryside approximately halfway between Mansfield and Seymour, just south of the actual town of Longwood.

Video: Satellite short wave infrared view of the scar left from the Longview fire from before on January 6 and after on January 11, 2026. Source: DTN

DTN APAC serves the forestry and emergency sectors, delivering trusted weather data and severe weather alerting to maintain safety, protect your assets and underpin your planning. 

See our Case Study on how Tasmania Fire Service (TFS) improved lightning detection and continued optimising preparations for challenging fire seasons ahead with DTN APAC’s full suite of solutions.

Learn more about our large range of industry leading products and services or email us at sales.apac@dtn.com

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Intense and hazardous Tasman Sea

Ocean conditions across NSW’s South Coast rapidly deteriorated last Friday as a deep feed of easterly winds whipped up large and dangerous seas. The Batemans Bay Surfrider buoy recorded an increase of nearly 3 metres in significant wave heights in the 8 hours to 9pm on Friday.

Image: Significant wave height recordings from Surfrider buoys off the NSW coastline between Thursday and Tuesday, January 15-20, 2026. Source: Manly Hydraulics Laboratory.

The surge of large east-to-southeast swell moved up the coast throughout Friday and into the weekend, with maximum wave heights reaching over 9 metres off the Sydney coast on Saturday morning. A Coastal Hazard Warning for Damaging Surf was issued for coastal areas south of Seal Rocks around this peak period of swell activity.

Week of activity in the Tasman and Coral seas

Video: 10 metre wind speeds across the Tasman and Coral seas this week showing areas of swell generation directed towards Australia’s East Coast.

As seen in the video above, storms in both the Tasman and Coral seas have continued to blow strong easterly winds into this week, directing persistent swell towards the East Coast of Australia.

While the largest waves were experienced on Saturday, the swell is not expected to drop below 2 metres across much of coastal NSW between the weekend and much of this working week. Lengthy periods of significant swell can cause long lasting delays across shipping routes with port operations being impacted.

Video: Significant wave heights across the Tasman and Coral seas this week.

Coasts between Jervis Bay and Seal Rocks, including Sydney, will receive the highest energy across the period, with much of this energy coming from longer period swell from the east to southeast. This combination of size, period and direction is particularly notorious for causing significant coastal erosion, disruption to port, ferry and maritime operations, and bringing deceptively powerful surf and rip currents.

Video: Peak wave period across the Tasman and Coral seas this week.

Tropics buzzing with energy

Port, shipping and offshore operations across northern Australia are also on high alert with increased tropical activity currently affecting the region. Two potential tropical lows, 16U and 17U, are currently being monitored for potential tropical cyclone intensification this week

Image: Chances of Tropical Low 16U and 17U forming into tropical cyclones on Thursday afternoon. Source: BoM

DTN APAC is currently offering support through ongoing briefings and forecasts to port and maritime operations that may be impacted by either of these systems. By providing the latest meteorological forecasts, our customers are able to make informed decisions regarding deployment or harbouring of ships, tropical cyclone tie-down proceedures, or workload management, well ahead of the first signs of the system approaching.

How DTN APAC assists marine, ports and offshore industries

DTN APAC offers a comprehensive suite of services, refined through years of collaboration with the marine, ports and offshore industries, to optimise the safety and efficiency of your operations.

We work with you to understand your intrinsic operational challenges and customise high-precision forecasting, metocean and aviation services to your exact location and operational scope.

When working offshore, our solutions can underpin planning and safe execution for offshore oil and gas enterprises and wind farms. Our data can support your exploration, development, rig moving, shuttle tanker operations, and production and decommissioning phases. Whether your crews are on-site, being transported to shore, or diving to perform maintenance, we deliver tailored weather risk briefings to ensure you choose the optimal time to proceed.

DTN APAC’s trusted nowcasting and forecasting system, OpticastTM, allows you to rapidly respond to changing conditions offshore, en route and in port. We take your port topography and berth orientation into account, ensuring site-specific forecasts. For offshore oil & gas, wind farms, ports and logistics, we have your weather situational awareness covered, no matter where you are. We deliver real-time severe weather and lightning alerts to your team via your integrated dashboard: Portzone, and our Weatherguard app.

DTN APAC’s Total Lightning Network (TLN) ensures you avoid hours of unnecessary downtime by providing the most accurate technology in lightning detection and alerting. Safeguard your teams and assets with lighting and Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts (DTAs), customised to your existing parameters and delivered in real-time across all devices in your network. You gain full spatial awareness of developing severe weather systems, allowing you to plan ahead and, where needed, execute your shutdown and evacuation procedures.

With extreme conditions slowing production and affecting infrastructure, safety and transport, trust us to deliver Australia’s most precise weather data and tailored insights, giving you decisive confidence when it’s most needed.

Learn more about our large range of industry leading products and services or email us at sales.apac@dtn.com

Thumbnail image source: iStock / Page Chichester.

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Rainfall rates between 80 and 140mm in one to three hours were registered across parts of Sydney’s Northern Beaches and Central Coast on Saturday afternoon and evening. In some areas, these rainfall rates are comparable to the tropics and are equivalent to one in 200-to-500-year events. This intense rainfall was caused by a deep feed of moist easterly winds coming off the very warm Tasman Sea, directed over the region by a coastal trough. Parts of the Pacific Highway that connect Sydney to Brisbane, and the Central Coast train line that connects Sydney to Newcastle and beyond, was heavily disrupted by the localised flooding.

Video: 6-hourly rainfall estimates and rain gauge observations since 9am on Saturday morning, as seen on the DTN APAC Stormtracker dashboard.

Further heavy falls have continued overnight, with many locations experiencing their heaviest rain in one to two years. Notable 24-hour rainfall accumulations to 9am Sunday include:

• 346mm at Palm Beach Golf Club
• 264mm at Great Mackeral Beach
• 260mm at Wattamolla
• 250mm at Pearl Beach
• 242mm at Woy Woy
• 209mm at Ettalong
• 194mm at Avalon
• 180mm at Terrey Hills (wettest day on record for the station, with records since 2005)
• 129mm at Norah Head (wettest January day on record, with records since 1996, and wettest day since October 2020 – 5 years ago)
• 134mm at Wisemans Ferry (wettest day since March 2021 – nearly 5 years ago)
• 124mm at Sydney Obs Hill (wettest January day since 1988 – 38 years ago)
• 103mm at Bankstown (wettest January day since 2001 – 25 years ago)
• It was the wettest January day on record (records since year) for these stations: Camden Aiport (140mm – since 1943), Penrith (105mm – since 1996), Mount Boyce (142mm – since 1995), Campbelltown (126mm – since 2007) and Gosford (125mm – since 2014)
• Over 90 locations across NSW with over 100mm

Image: Estimated 24-hour rainfall accumulations and rain gauge observations since 9am on Saturday across the Greater Sydney Metropolitan region, as seen on the DTN APAC Stormtracker Dashboard.

Road and train networks were disrupted by the flash flooding, with Sydney Trains having to halt rail movements between the Central Coast and Sydney, and the slowed the arterial Pacific Highway that connect Sydney to Newcastle and Brisbane. Flooding, combined with strong winds, has caused trees to fall across roads, houses and powerlines, with the SES and power networks responding to thousands of calls for help and outages. Flood prone areas like Narrabeen Lagoon in Sydney’s Northern Beaches have also been evacuated.

Over 19,000 lightning strikes have also been recorded within 100km of Sydney since midnight on Friday, most of which were over the northern suburbs and Central Coast areas.

Heavy rainfall continues to move into the Sydney Basin on Sunday morning, but conditions gradually improved into Monday. As seen in the animation from DTN APAC’s Stormtracker Dashboard below, the heaviest falls contracted north into Sunday afternoon, with showers and more isolated heavy rain extending into Monday.

Video: 6-hourly rainfall rates and 10m wind speeds according to the high-resolution ACCESS-C Sydney computer model.

How DTN APAC’s unique data sources are helping NSW businesses

We help businesses in Australia, Asia and the Pacific prepare for flooding rainfall and other severe weather, across sectors including Roads and Transportation, Emergency Services, Mining, Insurance and Energy.

Grounds are saturated around Sydney and eastern NSW, leaving businesses and industries vulnerable to flooding, toppling of trees and other weather risk hazards.

Our Long-Range Weather Forecasting spans from 14 day to 12 month forecasts.

These forecasts are produced by our meteorologists using raw data provided by international weather agencies.

These forecasts are produced using a combination of techniques, some in the public domain and others developed by DTN APAC.

Our Risk Communicators can then work closely with you to analyse how weather impacts your operations and communicate potential risks. We can then support your risk management planning, and provide situational awareness and post-event reporting when extreme weather events hit hard.

Find out more about our our large range of industry leading products and services or email us at sales.apac@dtn.com

The post Transport, emergency and energy industries flooded across Greater Sydney with weekend deluges appeared first on DTN APAC.

DTN operates Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts (DTA) which alert businesses and industries to thunderstorms based on intensity and movement. These alerts provide advanced notice of thunderstorms moving into an area. The animated loop below shows DTAs in action over the Perth region on Sunday, as seen on DTN APAC’s Stormtracker dashboard.

Video: DTN APAC Stormtracker’s Radar, Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts (DTA) and Total Lightning Network with severe thunderstorms moving over the Perth region on Sunday, December 14, 2025.

Three levels of thunderstorm alerting are provided by DTN: Level 1 (blue), Level 2 (yellow) and Dangerous Thunderstorm Alert (red). Alert levels are based on lightning frequency and density, and color-coded thunderstorm track polygons are provided to indicate the areas likely to be impacted in the next 30 minutes.

Image: DTN Level 1 and 2 thunderstorm alerts in action on Sunday, December 14, 2025.

Early warnings for thunderstorms can be incorporated into Trigger Action Response Plans (TARPs) for industries such as aviation, shipping, transport and utilities where lightning poses a serious risk to outdoor workers. Severe thunderstorms also pose a significant risk to expensive machinery with destructive wind gusts and large hail, bringing possible disruptions to the supply and industry chain resulting in costly insurance bills.

Thunderstorm activity started shortly after midday on Sunday, with powerful thunderstorms tracking south to southeast across the region. Between midday to midnight on Sunday, nearly 615,000 lightning strikes (over 135,000 recorded as ground strikes) were detected by DTN’s Total Lightning Network (TLN) across western WA.

Image: DTN’s Total Lightning Network (TLN) detected a total of 614,840 lightning strikes within 500km of Dalwallinu between 12pm AWST Sunday, and 12am AWST Monday, December 15, 2025. Of the total lightning strike amount, 135,919 were recorded as ground strikes.

Notable wind gusts recorded with these severe thunderstorms include:

• 107 km/h at Ejanding at 3:38pm
• 100 km/h at Perth Airport at 4:03pm
• 94 km/h at Meekatharra and Pearce at 2:55pm and 4:10pm, respectively
• 92 km/h at Moora at 2:54pm

While storms remained active across the region throughout the afternoon and evening, most areas only received heavy rainfall for an hour or so, resulting in:

• 26mm at Long Pool in the hour to 3:50pm
• 17mm at Perth Ap (wettest December day in 14 years)
• 7mm at Dalwallinu (wettest December day in 13 years)
• The wettest December day in 8 years for Perth (15mm), Swanbourne (3mm), Pearce (14mm), Jandakot (6mm) and Bickley (13mm)

Damaging winds and flash flooding quickly moving over infrastructure with thunderstorms can catch operators off guard and unable to safely complete storm mitigation procedures.

How DTN APAC’s Total Lightning Network (TLN) and now-casting solutions are helping mining, transport, shipping and utility industries with severe thunderstorm warnings

Our Total Lightning Network is the intelligent lightning solution that goes above and beyond to alert lightning and increase your lead time before the storm hits.

We utilise a vast global sensor network, created with our partner Earth Networks. Over 1200 sensors in 40+ countries provide a worldwide view of both intra-cloud (IC) and cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strikes, enabling businesses to plan and respond with the most precise insight available. The highest density of sensors across Australia and the globe give you the edge.

Real-time monitoring and alerting enhance safety outcomes whilst also preventing costly shutdowns caused by inaccurate sensor data. Our system provides early warning of approaching storms by tracking lightning activity, alerting you with the positive charge buildup that often precedes a strike, making it easier to detect potential threats.

Offering unsurpassed accuracy, with real-time sensing to <200m, we integrate with your existing systems to keep your enterprise operating within your defined severe weather thresholds. Our technology also helps monitor radiation from electrical discharges and ensures every lightning flash is accounted for.

Visualise approaching storms as our customisable GIS system, Stormtracker, plots strike data across your site and infrastructure. This enables enhanced understanding of the potential risk inherent in each severe weather system and how storms produce hazardous conditions. Integrated satellite technology improves tracking accuracy, while real-time weather forecasts provide deeper insights into developing thunderstorm activity and potential disruptions.

Leave nothing to chance. Be confident working outdoors with the most sophisticated lightning alerting system, delivering intelligence to any device across your business network. Whether you need a personal lightning alerting tool for individual safety or enterprise-wide monitoring, our solution is designed to emit timely alerts and protect your operations.

Learn more about our large range of industry leading products and services or email us at sales.apac@dtn.com

The post DTN Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts in action with severe thunderstorms disrupting Perth industries appeared first on DTN APAC.

Clear skies associated a large and slow-moving high pressure system have allowed hot air to build up over parts of northern, western and central Australia this week. This hot air will spread across southern and southeastern Australia between now and the weekend under the influence of a broad low pressure trough, which will also cause wind to strengthen over several states.

Temperatures rising over all of southeastern Australia in the next few days will bring severe heatwave conditions and high energy demand. The burst of heat and windy conditions also brings disruptive elevated fire danger ratings to parts of SA, Victoria and NSW.

South Australia

North to northwesterly winds are strengthening over SA on Thursday as the low pressure trough deepens over the state. These blustery winds are driving hot inland air towards the south, causing temperatures to reach about 34°C in Adelaide and 36°C around Keith. Further north, temperatures are likely to exceed 40°C in the state’s Pastoral districts on Thursday.

Image: Forecast maximum temperatures on Thursday, December 4, 2025.

The combination of heat, blustery winds and low relative humidity have caused Extreme fire danger ratings over central and eastern part of SA on Thursday. Total fire bans have been declared in eight of the state’s 15 districts:

• Eastern Eyre Peninsula
• Flinders
• Mid North
• Yorke Peninsula
• Mount Lofty Ranges
• Riverland
• Murraylands
• Upper South East

Milder southerly winds will drop temperatures and fire danger ratings in the state’s south from Thursday afternoon into Friday, although intense heat will linger in the north of SA until Saturday. While Adelaide is only forecast to reach 22°C on Saturday, some northern pastoral areas could reach the high-40s on Saturday afternoon.

Victoria

All of Victoria will be affected by a surge of hot northwesterly winds on Thursday, with temperatures forecast to reach 34°C in Melbourne, 36°C in Mallacoota and 38°C in Mildura. Extreme fire danger ratings are likely to develop in parts of the Mallee, Wimmera and Northern Country districts amid this heat on Thursday, with total fire bans declared for all three districts.

Image: Forecast fire danger ratings and total fire bans as seen on the DTN APAC Stormtracker dashboard on Thursday, December 4, 2025.

Milder southwesterly winds will spread through southern Victoria from Thursday afternoon into Friday, although northern Victoria will remain hot on Friday before cooling over the weekend. Extreme fire danger is expected to linger in parts of the Mallee and Northern Country districts on Friday.

New South Wales

Hot air will spread over NSW from Friday into the weekend, causing a spike in temperatures and fire danger ratings.

Sydney’s daily maximum temperatures are forecast to reach 30°C on Thursday, 35°C on Friday and 36°C on Saturday. The city’s western suburbs will be several degrees warmer, likely reaching around 40-41°C on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will also reach the low to mid-40s in western NSW on Friday and Saturday.

Image: Forecast maximum temperatures on Saturday, December 6, 2025.

Increasingly warm overnight conditions over this period, with Sydney’s minimum temperatures forecast to only drop to 19°C on Friday, 23°C on Saturday and 20°C on Sunday, will prevent overnight relief from the heat. Severe heatwave conditions are forecast across the period, with high energy demand expected on Friday and Saturday as energy customers turn on A/C units to cool off.

Image: Forecast heatwave conditions between Thursday and Saturday, December 4-6, 2025.

Extreme fire danger ratings are likely to develop in parts of southern NSW on Friday and central, eastern and northern NSW on Saturday. Saturday’s Extreme fire danger is likely to affect parts of the Greater Sydney, Greater Hunter and Illawarra/Shoalhaven districts.

Image: Forecast fire danger ratings as seen on the DTN APAC Stormtracker dashboard on Saturday, December 6, 2025.

Thunderstorms igniting fires possible

While much of southeastern Australia will experience hot and windy weather over the next few days, some places could also see thunderstorms.

The atmosphere is too dry for widespread storms and heavy rain, so storms are likely to be scattered and fast-moving. The biggest threats from these storms will be damaging and possibly destructive winds, and dry lightning, which could ignite bush or grass fires.

Heat and thunderstorm activity will also spread further north into northern NSW and Queensland on Sunday and Monday.

Read our 2025-26 summer bushfire outlook: Heightened bushfire risk during the 2025-26 summer for WA, Victoria and NSW in latest AFAC Outlook

How DTN APAC Services Fire-Prone Outdoor Industries

Working in often challenging conditions across high-risk outdoor operations including forestry, emergency services, mining, rail, and utilities, our consolidated weather services ensure full situational awareness for you and your team.

DTN APAC serves fire-prone outdoor industries, delivering trusted weather data and severe weather alerting to maintain safety, protect your assets and underpin your operational planning.

Reinforce your Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Recovery (PPRR) efforts with our tailored services.

Prevention: Utilise our seasonal outlooks and daily forecasting to identify and implement prevention measures. Understand the climate risks affecting your operations. Calculate optimal timing for maintenance activities, vegetation management, and scheduled shutdowns.

Preparedness: Gain understanding of bushfire risk in the days, weeks and months leading up to peak fire season. Use DTN APAC’s seasonal outlooks and 14-day forecasting to plan workforce deployment, equipment positioning, and preventative operations such as controlled burns or asset maintenance.

Response: We deliver fire danger forecasts and provide nowcasting and forecasting of severe weather events, including thunderstorm/lightning detection and alerting, to give you full situational awareness of emergency conditions likely to impact your operations and infrastructure.

Recovery: Assess the weather risks affecting post-incident recovery and restoration processes. Utilise post-event analysis reports to support insurance claims, evaluate operational response effectiveness, and inform future risk management strategies.

We work to bring you full situational awareness so you can mitigate risk, ensure workforce safety, and maintain operational continuity across your outdoor assets.

Learn more about our large range of industry leading products and services or email us at sales.apac@dtn.com

See our Case Study on how Tasmania Fire Service (TFS) improved lightning detection and continued optimising preparations for challenging fire seasons ahead with DTN APAC’s full suite of solutions.

The post Extreme fire danger and severe heatwave conditions spreading across SA, Victoria and NSW appeared first on DTN APAC.

Parts of Australia have experienced severe soil moisture and rainfall deficiencies over the past months and years, while high fuel loads (grass, bush and forest) combined with hot and dry weather, should drive elevated fire danger over the coming 2025-26 summer.

Image: The AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for the 2025-26 summer highlighting key regions of increased risk of fire in the coming months. Source: AFAC.

Key regions that could see “an increased number of significant bushfires occurring in the outlook period compared to average” include parts of:

• western and southern WA
• central northern NSW
• southwest, western, central, north central and southwest Gippsland in Victoria

Overall, much of Australia should experience a warmer than normal summer. Rainfall outlooks for the coming season mostly promote wetter than normal conditions for northern and eastern Australia as a result of weak La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, and very warm sea surface temperatures off Australia’s east and north coasts. Elsewhere should see either normal, or drier than normal conditions over the coming three months.

Western Australia and the Northern Territory

Parts of western and southern WA are highlighted by the AFAC outlook with an increased risk of fire during the coming summer. This follows healthy wet season rainfall during the cooler months which has allowed the fuel loads to grow, combined with a forecast for hotter than normal, and drier than normal conditions over the coming months. This hot and drying trend will allow fuels to dry, increasing the risk of more significant fires, especially during the mid-to-late summer.

Image: Smoke dissipating from active fire over WA’s southwest and south on Monday, December 1, 2025.

Northern WA and the NT are generally expecting normal risk of fire during the summer months, especially with a wetter than normal outlook for the northern Australian wet season. However, parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne, WA interior and NT interior could still see periods of increased fire activity following a very dry period during the dry season. This is more likely during the early summer with hot and windy conditions, ahead of intrusions of the Australian monsoon.

South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania

Southeastern Australia has benefited from recent rainfall increasing the soil moisture and leading to some vegetation growth. However, the winter and spring rainfall received wasn’t enough to offset the severe rainfall deficits that have plagued much of the region over the past two years.

Image: rainfall deficits across Australia over the last two years. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

These lingering rainfall deficiencies, combined with a forecast for warmer than normal summer, and normal-to-below average rainfall, could lead to a significant risk of increased fire activity over the latter half of summer. AFAC highlights broad parts of Victoria experiencing this increased risk, notably forest and woodland areas of the south-west, Otways, Mornington Peninsula, southwest Gippsland, Kinglake and Yarra Ranges, and Elidon.

While AFAC’s outlook keeps South Australia and Tasmania within the normal risk of fire this summer, rapid drying of soil moisture and forest, grass and crop fuels could lead to increasing fire risk late in the season. Notably, parts of SA’s Riverland, North East Pastoral, Mount Lofty Ranges and Mid North regions, and Tasmania’s southwest and southeast, could be at risk if very dry, hot and windy conditions become more prevalent this summer.

New South Wales and Queensland

Spring weather was disrupted by a sudden stratospheric warming event leading to stronger cold fronts crossing southern and eastern Australia. While this event brought healthy rainfall to southern states, NSW and Queensland have experienced a number of very hot, dry and windy spells over the past months, helping dry out the landscape and bringing bursts of elevated fire danger.

Read more: How this sudden stratospheric warming event has disrupted Australia’s weather

Hot, dry and windy bursts of elevated fire danger are expected again during December for NSW and southern and central Queensland. As the summer evolves, impacts of this stratospheric warming should ease, and the effects of very warm oceans off the East Coast will increase the probability of wetter than normal conditions, especially across eastern NSW and Queensland. Western and central parts of these states further from this moisture source could see fire risk persist well into summer, with AFAC focusing on central northern NSW in their outlook.

A combination of warmer than normal temperatures, and moisture from these warm oceans, have and will continue to bring increased thunderstorm activity across the region this summer. Lightning has the potential to ignite fires, especially across dry landscape, as they have done a number of times this season.

Image: A series of thunderstorms igniting a fire over central NSW, north of Parkes, on Wednesday, November 26, 2025.

Northern Queensland is transitioning into its wet season, bringing with it subduing of fire danger and vegetation growth, which is normal for this time of year.

What is “normal fire risk”?

Peak fire danger seasons are different across Australia, as seen in the image below.

Image: Peak fire danger seasons across Australia. Source: Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience

Northern Australia experiences its worse fire risk across the back half of the dry season, when the landscape has dried and strong dry winds blow from the interior. Much of Queensland and northeast NSW fire danger peaks during spring following the dry winter, and as temperature and thunderstorms ramp up, but ahead of the wet and humid summer. Southern Australia typically experiences the worse fire danger during summer with hot and dry airmasses moving over from the interior.

It’s important to note that normal fire risk does not mean no fire risk. Under the wrong conditions, vegetation can dry rapidly, and fire weather can be extremely erratic, leading to impactful fires, even in “normal fire risk” zones.

Communities, industries and other stake holders across Australia should remain careful and vigilant of fire weather forecasts throughout the coming season.

How DTN APAC Services Fire-Prone Outdoor Industries

Working in often challenging conditions across high-risk outdoor operations including forestry, emergency services, mining, rail, and utilities, our consolidated weather services ensure full situational awareness for you and your team.

DTN APAC serves fire-prone outdoor industries, delivering trusted weather data and severe weather alerting to maintain safety, protect your assets and underpin your operational planning.

Reinforce your Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Recovery (PPRR) efforts with our tailored services.

Prevention: Utilise our seasonal outlooks and daily forecasting to identify and implement prevention measures. Understand the climate risks affecting your operations. Calculate optimal timing for maintenance activities, vegetation management, and scheduled shutdowns.

Preparedness: Gain understanding of bushfire risk in the days, weeks and months leading up to peak fire season. Use DTN APAC’s seasonal outlooks and 14-day forecasting to plan workforce deployment, equipment positioning, and preventative operations such as controlled burns or asset maintenance.

Response: We deliver fire danger forecasts and provide nowcasting and forecasting of severe weather events, including thunderstorm/lightning detection and alerting, to give you full situational awareness of emergency conditions likely to impact your operations and infrastructure.

Recovery: Assess the weather risks affecting post-incident recovery and restoration processes. Utilise post-event analysis reports to support insurance claims, evaluate operational response effectiveness, and inform future risk management strategies.

We work to bring you full situational awareness so you can mitigate risk, ensure workforce safety, and maintain operational continuity across your outdoor assets.

Learn more about our large range of industry leading products and services or email us at sales.apac@dtn.com

See our Case Study on how Tasmania Fire Service (TFS) improved lightning detection and continued optimising preparations for challenging fire seasons ahead with DTN APAC’s full suite of solutions.

The post Heightened bushfire risk during the 2025-26 summer for WA, Victoria and NSW in latest AFAC Outlook appeared first on DTN APAC.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is one phase of a Pacific Ocean phenomenon called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The other phases of ENSO are El Niño and neutral.

When La Niña is occurring, abnormally cool water lies near the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and warmer than normal water sits in the western tropical Pacific. This sea surface temperature pattern is associated with changes in the overlying atmosphere, with easterly trade winds typically becoming stronger and blowing extra moisture towards the western side of the Pacific Ocean.

Image: Typical oceanic and atmospheric responses to La Niña. Source: Weatherzone.

What does La Niña mean for Australia’s businesses?

La Niña can have a strong influence on Australia’s weather. While El Niño’s weather impacts are mostly felt during winter and spring, La Niña can have a noticeable effect on Australian weather in summer.

Australia typically sees above average rain over northern and eastern parts of the country when La Niña is in place during summer. Eastern Australia’s mean summer rainfall is about 20% higher during La Niña, with the east coast typically seeing a stronger rainfall response to La Niña in summer than it does in winter or spring.

Daytime temperatures can also be suppressed over eastern and northern Australia when La Niña occurs in summer, which is associated with enhanced cloud cover over these parts of the country.

Tropical cyclone activity can also be amplified in the Australian region when La Niña is occurring.

The maps below show the average rainfall and maximum temperature changes observed across Australia from eight to nine past La Niña events combined.

Image: Average summer rainfall deciles under the influence of La Niña. The green and blue shading shows where summer rainfall is typically above average during La Niña. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Image: Average summer maximum temperature deciles under the influence of La Niña. The blue shading shows where summer days are typically cooler than average during La Niña. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

It is important to note that no two La Niña events are the same and other competing climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), can reinforce or counteract La Niña’s influence.

La Niña underway

The Bureau of Meteorology declared on Thursday, November 27, that La Niña is underway. This declaration was not a signal that La Niña is suddenly occurring, but recognition that it has been in place for the past couple of months.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s criteria for declaring La Niña are mostly retrospective, meaning La Niña conditions need to have been present in both the ocean and atmosphere for an extended period before they will declare it.

The Bureau noted that “observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been consistent with La Niña conditions since early October.”

“The Bureau’s model currently predicts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain at La Niña levels until early 2026 before returning to neutral. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.”

What can Australian businesses expect from this La Niña?

With Australia entering summer under the influence of La Niña, many industries might be expecting to see above average rain and cooler than average days in the coming months, particularly in the country’s north and east.

However, the latest long-range outlooks from the Bureau paint a different picture, predicting near or below average rain and abnormally warm days for much of the country this summer.

Image: Chance of exceeding the median rainfall this summer. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Image: Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature this summer. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

One of the reasons for the warm and dry summer outlook, despite La Niña, is the ongoing influence of a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in the Southern Hemisphere. This negative SAM has been in place since early October in response to rare episodes of Sudden Stratospheric Warning above Antarctica during mid to late spring.

A negative SAM during late spring and summer enhances westerly winds over Australia, which can counteract the influence of La Nina’s strengthened easterly trade winds. The current negative SAM phase has indeed been hindering La Niña’s influence on Australian weather in recent months, and this influence may linger into early summer.

Some international long-range forecast models do show signs of La Niña starting to have more influence on Australian rainfall in the coming weeks. This suggests that a breakdown of the negative SAM may allow La Niña’s influence to emerge more clearly into late December or January.

Image: Forecast monthly precipitation anomaly for Australia during December, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Credit: DTN APAC.

The outlook for this summer is currently tricky to pin down due to the competing influences of La Niña and the SAM, and uncertainty regarding the future development of the SAM into December.

DTN meteorologists will be keeping a close eye on the primary climate drivers around Australia in the coming weeks to see how this situation evolves heading into summer.

How DTN APAC can help

The shifting climate is bringing increased complexity and greater risks to businesses worldwide. We are here for you, delivering trusted weather solutions to optimize your operations and profitability.

DTN APAC is a diverse team, with global forecasting, product development and analytics expertise. Couple this with extensive industry experience spanning Aviation to Energy, and we are primed to assist you in strengthening your response to weather impact.

We work hard to identify your operational pressures and tailor our services and products to meet your needs. Concise communication, giving you full situational awareness exactly when you need it, is our focus. We want to reduce weather risk in your operations, every day.

We deliver clear and comprehensive weather data that you can’t get anywhere else, personalised risk assessments and briefings to you and your team, so that your critical decisions can be made with confidence.

We are available 365 days a year, so you always have the timely guidance you require, especially when severe conditions hit.

You have our insights to rely on to see you through complex situations, minimising potential loss of profit and maximising the safety of your staff and assets.

Learn more about our large range of industry leading products and services or email us at sales.apac@dtn.com

Thumbnail image source: iStock / da-kuk.

The post Bureau of Meteorology declares La Niña days out from summer – what does this mean for Australian businesses? appeared first on DTN APAC.

Over 75,000 customers across southeast Queensland remain without power on Tuesday, after a peak of around 161,000 following the relatively brief, but intense severe thunderstorms complex that crossed the region on Monday afternoon. Damage to power utility networks and rescue efforts for residents was worse than those inflicted by Cyclone Alfred in March for some areas.

An outbreak of thunderstorms formed over far northeastern New South Wales on Monday and rapidly crossed the border, impacting densely populated areas along the coast and nearby hinterland and ranges from the Gold Coast to Bundaberg, including the Brisbane Metropolitan and Sunshine Coast regions.

Image: Eight-hour loop showing radar and satellite imagery from 2pm to 10pm AEST in southeast Queensland and far northeast NSW on Monday, 24 November, 2025.

Some of the largest hailstones observed included:

• 14cm hailstones near Chandler around 3:00pm
• 11cm hailstones at Manly, Ferny Hills and Alexandra Hills around 3:30pm
• 9cm hailstones at Bunya around 3.24pm
• 9cm hailstones at Coombabah, Gold Coast, at 2:10pm

Some of the noteworthy rainfall totals (all of which fell in a brief period of around an hour or less) included:

• 79mm at Moreton Island
• 69mm at Upper Rous River/Hopkins Creek (on the NSW side of the border, just south of Lamington NP)
• 56mm at Hervey Bay
• 40.6mm at Maryborough
• 34.8mm at Tewantin
• 31.6mm at Brisbane Airport
• 29.4mm at Brisbane

Wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h were also reported during the storms in southeast Queensland, including at Brisbane Airport and on the Sunshine Coast.

The DTN Total Lightning Network reported over a million lightning strikes detected within 400 km of Brisbane on Monday, November 24, 2025, nearly 200,000 of which were ground strikes.

Flying tree branches, roofs and debris from these intense thunderstorms downed over 600 powerlines, resulting in over 161,000 energy customers without power on Monday. Power utility companies and contractors are hard at work on the recovery effort, but power restoration and clean up could still take days to be completed.

How did the storms form?

The three main ingredients for thunderstorms are:

• Instability
• Moisture
• Trigger

Atmospheric instability was abundant over southeast Queensland and northeast NSW on Monday due to warm air near the surface and much cooler, drier air aloft. This instability provided the lift required to build large thunderstorm clouds stretching thousands of metres into the sky.

There was also plenty of moisture available in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere, providing ample fuel for storm clouds to become loaded with rain and hail.

Two significant triggers for storms were also present on Monday. The first being a ‘dry line’ sitting over southeast Queensland and northeast NSW, which is a zone where moisture-laden air to the east clashes with drier air to the west. The second trigger for storms was a southeasterly wind change moving towards the north throughout the afternoon and evening.

One additional ingredient that helped make Monday’s storms particularly dangerous was wind shear, which refers to the change in wind speed and direction with height. Strong wind shear over southeast Queensland and northeast NSW helped create rotation in thunderstorms, increasing the likelihood of supercells, which are the most violent and dangerous type of thunderstorm.

Why was the hail so large?

Image: Hailstones the size of apples fell in The Gap, Brisbane, on November 24, 2025. Source: Nick Gilpin (@nickgilpin) on Threads.

Hail forms when raindrops are carried high into the sky by a thunderstorm’s updraft. The hail grows larger when it collides with supercooled water droplets high in the storm cloud, which freeze onto the surface of the hailstone and make it grow.

Stronger thunderstorms have powerful updrafts that cause hailstones to rise and fall over and over, accumulating new layers of ice each time they lift into the cold upper-levels of the storm (that’s why you often see layers on a large hailstone resembling the rings inside an onion).

As mentioned above, all of the elements were in place for the development of severe thunderstorms, which meant the atmosphere was like a natural laboratory for the creation of giant hailstones.

What next for Brisbane and Southeast Queensland weather?

Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next three days from this Tuesday through to Thursday. The storms may be severe.

Days will be hot, sticky and uncomfortable right across southeast Queensland, with maximums in the low-to-mid thirties across the region. Inland temperatures will be a few degrees higher than those along the coast.

How DTN APAC is helping remote mining, transport, fire services and agricultural industries with advanced weather intelligence, remote sensing and now-casting solutions during the severe weather season

Australia is a vast country with densely populated coastal areas across the south and east, and millions of square kilometres of sparsely populated and rich in resources elsewhere. Typical radar coverage extends to a radius of about 200km, however mountains, trees and towers can restrict this optimal coverage range. Even with over 60 radar sites operating across Australia, vast expanses of the outback and WA remain outside of this traditional radar coverage, as seen in the left image below.

Image: Comparison of traditional radar coverage and detected rainfall (left), and DTN’s Oracle and TLN (right), across Australia at 1am AEST on Tuesday, September 9, 2025.

The image on the right shows DTN’s Oracle rainfall and Total Lightning Network detecting a vast area of rain and thunderstorms that would have been missed by traditional detection methods.

DTN Oracle

The post Giant hail and intense thunderstorms leaves 161,000 customers without power across southeast Queensland appeared first on DTN APAC.

The downstream influence of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina caused intense inland heat to build and be drawn into eastern Australia, causing energy demand to soar in NSW and Queensland.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina crossed the northeast Kimberley coast in WA late on Monday, November 24, 2025, but downstream influences from the system will be felt 3,000 km away as vast amounts of heat from the Timor Sea is drawn and transported into higher levels of the atmosphere.

Image: Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina approaching the northeast Kimberley coast on Monday, November 24, 2025.

This warm upper-level air moved southwards before descending over the Australian continent under the influence of an upper-level high pressure system.

One important point to note about the air that Fina ejected into the upper-atmosphere is that while it has lost a lot of the moisture it began with, it has retained its potential temperature. This means the air warmed up significantly as it descends towards the ground over central Australia over the weekend and early week, a process called adiabatic warming.

The two maps below show the maximum temperature forecasts for Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, highlighting heat pushing into NSW and then Queensland in the coming days.

Image: Forecast maximum temperatures across NSW on Wednesday, November 26, 2025.

Image: Forecast maximum temperatures across Queensland on Thursday, November 27, 2025.

Temperatures are forecast to reach 36°C on Wednesday for Sydney, and 36°C on Thursday for Brisbane, driving high energy demand for energy providers in the coming days. Warm temperatures are forecast to persist for NSW and Queensland into early next week, limiting any cooling relief and amplifying the energy demand across the period. Severe heatwave conditions currently extend across much of Queensland and northeast NSW, with pockets of extreme heatwave conditions for northeastern Queensland.

Image: Heatwave conditions across Queensland between Monday and Wednesday, November 24-26, 2025.

DTN APAC has grown to become the outright leader within the Australian energy market, serving wind, solar, hydro, trading, utilities and network companies.

You can’t control the weather, but you can gain precision insights to optimise your response. What lights us up is providing your energy business with tailored weather information to reduce your risk and keep you moving ahead of the curve.

Our services cover all aspects – from wind and solar generation to demand forecasts, wholesale markets to retail so, no matter where your company sits, we have solutions for you. We have worked closely with market participants to create products that meet the evolving needs of the sector, aiming to increase safety and profitability for our customers.

Your customisable Energyzone interface can assess heat/heatwave potential from 14 days out to 12 months. It allows you to benefit from specialised indices for CDD/HDD/apparent temperature/sunshine hours to help accurately predict the demand for electricity. This, along with high-resolution modelling and local knowledge, gives you the most precise information available to make the critical decisions that bolster your production.

Benefit from the timely delivery of accurate weather information, allowing informed and effective decision-making.

How DTN APAC Risk Communicator can inform your decision making with tailored weather and seasonal climate outlook

DTN APAC is a diverse team, with global forecasting, product development and analytics expertise. Couple this with extensive industry experience spanning Aviation to Energy, and we are primed to assist you in strengthening your response to weather impact.

We work hard to identify your operational pressures and tailor our services and products to meet your needs. Concise communication, giving you full situational awareness exactly when you need it, is our focus. We want to reduce weather risk in your operations, every day.

We deliver clear and comprehensive weather data that you can’t get anywhere else, personalised risk assessments and briefings to you and your team, so that your critical decisions can be made with confidence.

We are available 365 days a year, so you always have the timely guidance you require, especially when extreme temperatures hit.

Learn more about our large range of industry leading products and services or email us at sales.apac@dtn.com

The post How a tropical cyclone near Darwin causes energy demand to soar in NSW and Queensland appeared first on DTN APAC.

The last tropical cyclone to directly impact Darwin was Tropical Cyclone Marcus in March 2018. It produced sustained winds of 96 km/h, and gusts of 126 km/h at Darwin Airport, and was a direct hit from a category two strength system. Marcus resulted in over 6,400 insurance claims, totalling USD $75 million (approximately AUD $97.5 million).

NT WorkSafe has advised Top End businesses to review their emergency plans and make any preparations for TC Fina, including evacuation plans, securing worksites and operational equipment, and ensuring all workers are safe. Major industries could see significant impacts, including Ports, Mining, Transport, and Agriculture. 

Where is Tropical Cyclone Fina now?

Tropical Cyclone Fina is currently sitting off the north coast of the NT. At 9:30am ACST on Thursday, November 20, Fina was a category two system located roughly 405 kilometres northeast of Darwin. Wind speeds near its core were averaging 95 km/h and gusting to about 130 km/h. 

While Fina had been moving towards the east on Wednesday, it took a right-hand turn overnight and has now started to move south, a track that will allow it to approach the NT’s Top End over the next 24 hours. 

Where will TC Fina make landfall?

Fina is expected to pass over the Cobourg Peninsula and Croker Island as a category two tropical cyclone late on Friday, where it will cause heavy rain, damaging to destructive winds and abnormally high tides. Some of this severe weather will also extend to parts of the Tiwi Islands into Saturday morning. 

Tropical Cyclone Fina is likely to weaken as it crosses the Cobourg Peninsula on Friday night. However, it should re-intensify on Saturday as it moves over warm water in the Van Diemen Gulf. 

Fina is expected to be a category two tropical cyclone as it traverses the Van Diemen Gulf, although there is small chance it could reach category three strength on Saturday as it draws energy from the warm water in the Gulf. 

Image: Current forecast track map for Tropical Cyclone Fina. Valid at 1:18pm ACST on Thursday, November 20, 2025. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Will TC Fina hit Darwin?

The current forecast track for Fina shows the system exiting the Van Diemen Gulf and moving through the Clarence Strait on Saturday afternoon, before passing north of Darwin on Saturday night.  

While the official forecast track keeps Fina more than 40km to the north of Darwin on Saturday night, some computer models suggest it could move closer to, or even directly over Darwin on the weekend. 

It is important to point out that there is notable disagreement between models regarding how close Fina will get to Darwin on the weekend. The two maps below show different predictions for Fina’s position on Saturday night. 

Image: Forecast wind gusts from the ECMWF model showing the eye of Tropical Cyclone Fina directly over Darwin on Saturday afternoon. This is not the official forecast track and should be treated with caution. Source: DTN 

Image: Forecast wind gusts from the ECMWF model showing the eye of Tropical Cyclone Fina directly over Darwin on Saturday night. This is not the official forecast track and should be treated with caution. Source: DTN. 

Regardless of exactly how close Fina gets to Darwin, the city and surrounding areas are likely to be impacted by heavy rain and damaging winds on Saturday and Sunday. At this stage, the most intense weather in the Darwin region will occur between Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. 

After passing Darwin, Fina is expected to track in a west to southwesterly direction on Sunday and Monday. At this stage, it could approach the northern Kimberley coast for another landfall early next week, causing heavy rain, flooding and damaging to destructive winds. 

Rainfall totals from Fina are likely to reach about 100 to 300 mm across a broad area of the northwest Top End, with isolated falls reaching around 500 mm. 

Image: Forecast accumulated rain over the next 7 days, according to the ECMWF model. The darkest blue shading indicates rainfall more than 300mm is expected. Source: DTN. 

Wind speeds will depend on the tropical cyclone’s strength over the coming days, with category two tropical cyclones typically causing gusts of 125 to 164 km/h. Category three tropical cyclones can cause wind gusts of about 165 to 224 km/h. 

Tropical cyclone warnings, marine wind warnings and flood watches have been issued for parts of the NT. Check the latest warnings in your area for the most up-to-date information on this system. 

DTN APAC helps your business prepare for Tropical Cyclone Season

The 2025-26 Tropical Cyclone season has already kicked off, is your business equipped with the right weather data and support to protect your people and operations?   

From 24/7 expert Risk Communicators to tailored Tropical Cyclone Outlooks, DTN APAC specialises in industry-leading forecast, alerting and threat analysis of tropical cyclones across Australia and Asia, offering you reliable solutions when the weather turns wild.  

Whether it’s preparing for this season’s tropical storm potential, or rapid-response forecasting with a typhoon approaching, or simply ensuring your operations team is equipped to confidently make decisions ahead of severe weather, our weather Risk Communicators are here for you. 

Our weather Risk Communicators deliver short- to long-term guidance from: 

• Hourly-event weather monitoring (alerting you of impending destructive winds and heavy rain ahead of a tropical cyclone). 
• Week to month operational planning based on likely timing of increased monsoonal rain or periods of reduced cyclone activity. 
• Seasonal long term planning based on climate drivers and the likely trends across the coming months. 

We deliver clear and comprehensive weather data, personalised risk assessments and briefings to you and your team, so that your critical decisions can be made with confidence. 

We are available 365 days a year, so you always have the timely guidance you require, especially when severe conditions hit. 

You have our insights to rely on to see you through complex situations, minimising potential loss of profit and maximising the safety of your staff and assets. 

Learn more about our industry-leading weather solutions or email us at sales.apac@dtn.com

The post Tropical Cyclone Fina to pass near Darwin this weekend – possible disruptions to key industries appeared first on DTN APAC.