The season runs from November to April, and for mining operators and businesses across northern Australia, 2026-27 is shaping up to be a season where the headline numbers and the real risk may not line up. 

On average, the Australian region sees 9 to 10 tropical cyclones a season. About 4 of those cross the coast, and about 50% reach severe category 3 strength or higher, although recent years have seen a higher proportion of severe cyclones at around 60-70%. The first coastal crossing typically arrives in late December. 

The climate drivers have a large influence on those numbers. Looking back at Bureau of Meteorology records since 1980, the busiest seasons tend to come in La Niña years (blue), and the quietest in El Niño years (red). Season totals have also drifted lower over time, by around one less tropical cyclone every 11 years. 

This year the setup points to the quieter end. A record breaking El Niño is in place, along with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Together, these create an atmospheric pattern that normally means below-average cyclone numbers. 

But the oceans are not following the usual script. Sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean basin and around much of Australia are running well above average, when an El Niño year would normally bring cooler water.  

Image: Daily Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) on October, 27 2026. Source: NOAA Coral Reef Watch 

Warm water is the fuel for tropical cyclones. A season with fewer systems can still produce stronger ones, and we would expect a higher proportion of the cyclones that do form to reach severe intensity. 

Timing matters too. Both El Niño and a positive IOD can delay the arrival of the monsoon, and a later monsoon tends to push cyclone activity later into the season. For the parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne, Top End and Cape York, that makes the late-season period, rather than the traditional late December start, the time to watch most closely. 

Below-Average Cyclone Count Does Not Mean Below-Average Risk To Operations

For mining and resources operators, ports, energy providers and other businesses in the north, the message is simple: a below-average count is not a below-average risk. A single severe system can close a port, shut down a site and cut road and rail access for days. Shutdown and restart plans, supply stockpiles and crew arrangements should not be relaxed because the early weeks look quiet.

This is where DTN can help. Our meteorologists are tracking the season closely and can provide more detailed briefings, including expected cyclone numbers for individual regions, so your team can plan for the areas that matter to your operations rather than a national average. Our 7-Day Tropical Cyclone Service gives early guidance on developing and active systems, and our Risk Communicators can brief your leadership and site teams in clear, decision-ready terms.

Get in touch to book a regional briefing for your operations at sales.apac@dtn.com

The post Australia’s 2026-27 Tropical Cyclone Season: Late Start, Real Risk appeared first on DTN APAC.

The Bureau of Meteorology officially declared a positive IOD on Tuesday, October 27, which typically like El Niño can cause drier and warmer conditions over parts of Australia.  

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an index that measures the difference in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Indian Ocean. It is calculated by comparing the anomalies in two defined regions: 

• The IOD East region, which sits to the southwest of Indonesia 

• The IOD West region, which lies off the east coast of Africa, near the Horn of Africa 

 Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean on October 26, 2026. The IOD West and IOD East regions are highlighted. Source: NOAA. 

The IOD fluctuates between positive, neutral and negative phases. 

A positive IOD occurs when sea surface temperatures are cooler than average in the IOD East region and warmer than average in the IOD West region. This phase is typically associated with abnormally warm and dry weather in Australia, particularly in winter and early summer. 

However, despite Tuesday’s declaration warm water covers almost the whole Indian Ocean basin, with only a small cool pocket near Indonesia, and that warmth is feeding tropical moisture into Australia. This is generating more northwest cloud bands and thunderstorm rain than the classic positive IOD would suggest. The more probable outcomes of the 2026 positive IOD are a delayed monsoon, a longer fire season in the north and a later start to cyclone activity. 

Where the event stands

The IOD index has stayed at or above the positive threshold of +0.4 °C for seven consecutive weeks and reached +0.69 °C for the week ending 25 October 2026.  

Values are forecast to stay positive. All international models assessed agree the event will persist through spring and return to neutral in early summer, which fits the usual life cycle of an IOD event. 

The sea surface temperature analysis for the same week shows waters up to 3 °C above average around most of Australia’s west, south and south-east. Waters to the north and north-east, in the Arafura and Coral seas, are average to slightly below average. Those areas are forecast to warm over the coming months, particularly the north and the Coral Sea. 

Why this event may not behave like a typical positive IOD

The classic positive IOD pairs warm water in the western Indian Ocean with cool water in the east, off Indonesia and Sumatra. That temperature gradient shifts convection away from Australia’s northwest, so there is less moisture, fewer northwest cloud bands and less rain across the north and east. Winter and spring in past positive IOD years have typically run drier and warmer across much of the continent. 

The current satellite picture is different. The cool anomaly is confined to a small area around the Indonesian archipelago and nearby seas, while the rest of the basin, from the Arabian Sea and the equatorial Indian Ocean to the waters off Western Australia, is running well above average, with large areas at +1 to +2 °C and some patches higher. The eastern cool pole is much weaker than the textbook case, and that matters because it is the contrast that normally drives the drying signal. 

Warm water across that much of the basin supports a steady supply of tropical moisture toward Australia. That raises the chance of northwest cloud bands and of rain and thunderstorm events, particularly across the west and interior. The usual positive IOD impacts remain possible, but the warm basin offers a plausible reason why they may be muted, and why business planning should not simply assume a classic dry year. This is a judgement based on the current SST pattern, not a certainty, and the cool pocket near Indonesia could still influence the timing of the monsoon. 

What the rainfall outlook shows

The ECMWF SEAS5 monthly rainfall anomalies, issued October 2026, show a wet signal across the interior and parts of the south and east early on, with a drying signal building across the north from December. That sequence is consistent with warm-basin moisture arriving in the south and west first, and with a monsoon that is slow to arrive. 

 Images: ECMWF SEAS5 monthly rainfall anomalies for October, November and December 2026 and January 2027 (top to bottom)

The northern tropics are the notable feature. A drying signal across the Kimberley, Top End and Cape York that strengthens into January points to a slow start to the wet season, rather than a normal December onset. 

Monsoon, fire season and cyclones: the timing risks

A later monsoon.  

Like El Niño, a positive IOD can delay the onset of the Australian monsoon. Cooler water near Indonesia suppresses convection over the Maritime Continent, and that is the engine that normally helps pull the monsoon trough south in late spring. Even with a weak cool pole, the dry signal across the north from December in the outlook above points to the same risk. The expectation is a later and possibly less organised start, not a failed season, and warm waters to the north and in the Coral Sea may help rainfall ramp up quickly once the monsoon does arrive. 

A longer fire season.  

In the tropical north, fire season runs until the wet season starts, so each week of delay extends it. A slow monsoon also means more of the north stays hot and dry through the build-up. Further south, the wetter spring outlook for the interior and parts of the south-east can boost grass growth, and that fuel can cure into a fire risk if summer turns hot and dry.  

Cyclone activity pushed later.  

A typical Australian region season brings 9 to 10 tropical cyclones, about 4 of which cross the coast, and the first coastal crossing usually comes in late December. Seasons have also trended lower, by around one cyclone every 11 years on the Bureau of Meteorology record. A delayed monsoon usually means a delayed cyclone season, because cyclones need monsoon-type conditions to form. The most likely outcome is a quiet November and early December, with activity concentrated in late summer. The risk is not removed. Warm Coral Sea waters can fuel rapid intensification when systems do form, so a quiet start should not be read as a mild season overall. 

What it means for businesses across Australia

The common thread is timing and variability rather than a uniform dry year. Operations planned around a classic positive IOD, or around a normal December monsoon, are exposed in both directions. The sector view below is a planning guide drawn from the patterns described above, not a forecast for any single site. 

Image: Australian Sector Weather Impacts between November 2026 and February 2027. Source: DTN APAC Risk Communicators.

This positive IOD is real, but the warm Indian Ocean basin means it is unlikely to act as a simple drying switch. Expect more moisture than the textbook pattern implies, with the main risks being a later monsoon, a longer northern fire season and a cyclone season that starts late but can still be damaging. 

Prepare for Weather Risks and Uncertainty with DTN APAC

It’s more important now than ever to optimise your team and operation’s resilience against the uncertain timing and variability of seasonal weather risks.  

DTN APAC Risk Communicators work closely with operators across major industries to support risk management planning, provide situational awareness, and post-event reporting when extreme weather hits hard. This includes proactive monitoring of weather forecasts 5-14 days out and medium-range climate forecasts up to 6 weeks in advance. 

With expert support on hand, you can make tailored informed decisions in a timely manner to mitigate risks, keep operations going, and protect your assets and people. 

The post Positive IOD declared: Not a typical dry signal for Australia appeared first on DTN APAC.

What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? 

The IOD is a climate driver that measures the difference in sea surface temperature anomalies between two regions of the tropical Indian Ocean: one off the east coast of Africa and the other southwest of Indonesia. 

A positive IOD occurs when the western region is warmer than average and the eastern region is relatively cooler. This usually reduces the moisture flowing towards Australia and is typically linked to drier, warmer conditions across central and southern parts of the country in spring. A negative IOD does the opposite and often brings above-average rain. 

​

Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies across the Indian Ocean on 30 September 2026. Source: NOAA Coral Reef Watch. 

Is a positive IOD developing? 

The weekly IOD index has been above the positive IOD threshold of +0.4°C for three weeks, with the latest reading of 0.76°C in the week ending September 27. If it stays above the threshold for four weeks or more, the chance of impacts on Australian weather increases.​ 

Computer models are also forecasting a positive event, with the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S2 model keeping the index above the threshold through December. It then eases back to around the threshold in January, which is typical, as these events tend to break down once the northern monsoon arrives. The late arrival of the monsoon forecast is due to El Niño’s influence. 

​ Historically, positive IOD years have often brought below-average October to December rainfall to central and southern Australia, though parts of the Western Australian interior have stayed near or above average.  

Image: October to December rainfall deciles during past positive IOD years. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. 

In addition to the potential positive IOD, a near record breaking El Niño is underway. Past El Niño springs show a similar split to the IOD, with parts of inland Western Australia often wetter and the south-east drier than usual. The Bureau’s northern rainfall onset outlook also favours a later start to the rains across Queensland and the Top End, and an earlier start across much of Western Australia and the western Northern Territory. 

​ 

Image: October to December rainfall deciles during past El Niño years. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. 

A positive IOD, but not a textbook one 

The latest sea surface temperature map shows something unusual. Waters are above average across most of the Indian Ocean basin, with the strongest warmth in the western IOD region. Cooler pockets are present near Java and further east around Timor and the Banda Sea, but much of the eastern IOD region is still slightly warm. 

That means the positive reading is driven largely by the west warming more than the east, rather than by a clearly cool east. This broader warmth may be one reason seasonal models aren’t showing the widespread dry signal a positive IOD would normally bring. This is an interpretation, not an established finding. 

Unusually warm waters add humidity to the air above them. When a trough sets up over Western Australia and north-westerly winds draw that moisture inland, the result can be extra cloud, rain and storms. 

That is what happened in September. On 7 September, Leonora in the Goldfields recorded 58.8 mm, its wettest September day on record, and flooding closed major roads around the town in a region where September is normally the driest month. Three weeks later, DTN’s lightning network detected more than 1.3 million lightning pulses within 800 km of Leonora in 48 hours. 

DTN’s analysis links the storms to moisture from the warm Indian Ocean feeding a trough over the state, alongside El Niño and a weakly positive IOD. In late September, a hotspot 2 to 3°C above average sat well off WA’s northwest coast. 

What are models showing?  

The ECMWF model shows: 

• October: below-average rainfall along the east coast and across southern Victoria, with a slight wet tilt across the southern interior of Western Australia and South Australia. 

• November: the wetter tilt widens across central Australia. 

• December: drier across the Top End and Cape York, with wetter signals across parts of the interior and New South Wales. 

Most of these anomalies are modest, so they point to a shift in the odds rather than a guarantee.​​

Images: ECMWF SEAS5 monthly rainfall anomaly forecasts for October, November and December 2026. Source: DTN. 

What it could mean for mining 

September showed how quickly weather can disrupt mining country. Lightning is a safety issue for open-cut pits and outdoor crews. Flooding and road closures can interrupt haulage, fly-in fly-out movements and supply deliveries, and storms can threaten power to remote sites. 

Potential impacts for WA mining 

• Goldfields and interior mining: the wetter tilt in the seasonal models means a higher chance of further storms and short-lived flooding events on roads and haul routes, even though the region normally dries out in spring. Seasonal model signals are modest, so this is a tilt in the odds, not a forecast of any one event. DTN expects storms to continue across a broad area of WA into early October. 

• Pilbara and Gascoyne coast: the Bureau gives a 55 to 75% chance of a later-than-normal northern rainfall onset along this coastline, though an earlier onset is favoured across much of the rest of northern WA. Wet season planning for port and rail operations should allow for both. 

 Impacts on other industries 

• Agriculture: a wetter tilt across the interior of WA and SA is good news for cropping and grazing, but the east looks drier in October, and soil moisture is already below average across much of the east. Southwest WA has historically leaned drier in El Niño springs. 

• Northern industries: a later start to the wet season in Queensland and the Top End could affect pasture growth, mustering schedules and horticulture planting. 

• Energy and water: a warmer, drier east could lift cooling demand and put pressure on supply into summer. 

• Fire and insurance: the Bureau has flagged an elevated fire risk this season in parts of Gippsland, the far south-west and western Victoria. 

 Thumbnail map: earth.nullschool.net by Cameron Beccario. Data: OSTIA, UK Met Office / GHRSST / E.U. Copernicus Marine Service.

The post Signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, but it may not follow the textbook appeared first on DTN APAC.

The DTN Total Lightning Network detected 1,383,798 lightning pulses from thunderstorms within 800 km of Leonora in the 48 hours to 8am AWST on Monday, 28 September, with about 900,000 of them in the final 24 hours. Kalgoorlie-Boulder Airport collected 66 mm of rain from thunderstorm activity between Friday morning and Monday morning, roughly five times its September monthly average. 

This month’s recurring storms are associated with El Niño and a weakly positive Indian Ocean Dipole index, which could develop into a positive IOD event later this spring. Positive IOD events make high pressure systems more common south of Australia and help trap storm-producing troughs over WA. Storms aren’t unusual in WA at this time of year, but this system produced an unusually large amount of lightning over the same area for a prolonged period. 

The map below shows El Niño’s typically effect on rainfall during the later part of the year, with parts of central WA notably wetter. 

Image: October to December mean rainfall deciles during 10 El Niño years. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

The Leonora rainfall record came earlier in the month. On Monday, September 7 the town recorded 58.8 mm, well above the previous September daily record of 32.6 mm, set in 1984. Flooding closed two major roads around the town for extended periods, and the Leonora to Laverton Road was still shut the next day. In late August, DTN counted more than 288,000 lightning strikes above WA between the 26th and 30th. 

Why it matters for Mining

The northern Goldfields is a network of remote pits, processing plants and haul roads that depend on open ground, long road links and reliable power. That leaves it exposed to this kind of weather: 

• Lightning: Open-cut operations and outdoor work are in the firing line when storms stall. DTN, which sells lightning detection, describes lightning as a key consideration for mining and other outdoor operations. 
• Flooding and access: Leonora shows how quickly roads can be cut in a region where September is normally the driest month. 

What’s next?

DTN meteorologists expect storms and rain across a broad area of WA from Monday until at least Friday, with at least another million lightning strikes and 30 to 60 mm more rain in some areas. 

Where is the moisture coming from?

Moisture-laden tropical air from the Indian Ocean is feeding into a trough over the state, fuelling the thunderstorm activity. 

NOAA Coral Reef Watch’s sea surface analysis for 26 September shows warmer-than-normal water across much of the tropical Indian Ocean, with a hotspot roughly 2 to 3°C above average well off WA’s northwest coast. However, seas around Indonesia are cooler than normal, a sign of a potential developing positive IOD. That warm-west, cool-east contrast is the pattern associated with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, although the IOD index needs to remain above the positive threshold for a few more additional weeks for it to have an impact on our weather.  

Image: NOAA SST anomaly, 26 September 2026 showing warmer-than-normal water across the Indian Ocean, cooler water around Indonesia, 26 September. Source: NOAA Coral Reef Watch. 

The signs were there in August

August saw above to very-much-above average across a broad belt of the interior, from the Pilbara and Gascoyne through the central and southern interior. Rainfall analysis for the week ending 31 August shows much of that rain falling in the last week of the month. 

Image: Australian rainfall deciles for August 2026. Source. Bureau of Meteorology.

Like September, the rainfall was caused by the position of high pressure anomalies (shown below) and a prevailing northwesterly flow over WA, drawing moisture from the anomalously warm Indian Ocean basin. 

Image: Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly showing high pressure over Australia during August, particularly in the southeast. Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine; ERA5, August 2026 vs 1991-2020. 

ERA5 reanalysis data from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer shows August air moisture (precipitable water) well above the 1991-2020 average across parts of WA’s north and west, while Indonesia and Papua New Guinea were anomalously dry. Air pressure was above average across southern and southeastern Australia, with a strong high east of Tasmania. 

Image: Air moisture (precipitable water anomaly) ran above average over parts of WA in August. Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine; ERA5, August 2026 vs 1991-2020.

The week ahead

The trough will likely keep producing storms across a broad area of WA this week. For an industry that plans around road access, power and outdoor work, detailed forecasts on the week ahead are very important.

DTN APAC offers weather intelligence supporting the end-to-end scope of Mining operations, allowing leaders and crew to make decisions confidently every step of the way. Reach out to us today at sales.apac@dtn.com 

The post 1.3 million lightning strikes and a record September downpour: the storms testing WA’s Goldfields appeared first on DTN APAC.

It’s the seasonal signature of a super (very strong) El Niño combined with a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and both the historical record and the current seasonal forecast suggest it’s likely to keep recurring through spring before a potential switch from November. 

The setup right now 

An exceptionally strong blocking high of 1032 hPa is anchored over the Great Australian Bight is forecast in the evening on Thursday 17 September 2026. The forecast high is sturdy even by the standards of positive-SAM events.  

The ECMWF analysis below shows a very slack pressure gradient, which is shown by the large gaps between the white lines or isobars surrounding the high. This pressure gradient is conducive to very light winds at the surface, likely impacting the National Electricity Market’s (NEM) wind fleet.  

Image: Mean Sea Level pressure and Precipitable water forecast at 10pm AEST on Thursday September 17. Source: DTN and ECMWF 

The map above also shows precipitable water, with the blue to purple shades indicating abundant moisture in the atmosphere, while on the other end of the scale the black to yellow is showing low moisture.  

Almost all of the continent is showing the classic dry, still, high pressure signature that comes with a blocking system parked in place rather than moving through. Meanwhile moisture is pouring into WA as the high draws in moisture-laden air from the exceptionally warm waters across much of the Indian Ocean Basin. This is the setup we could see repeatedly in spring, with potential for above average rainfall across WA and parts of central Australia despite El Niño. 

This is the same mechanism behind previous documented low-wind weeks in the NEM. In comparable blocking-high setups, the wind’s share of NEM generation has been recorded dropping as low as 2–6%, against a typical yearly average closer to 13% and this week’s actual 5-minute NEM data confirms a similar story.  

The GFS 10-day mean-average MSLP panels show the strong blocking high over the next few days, with a temporary break, followed by a secondary block forming further east. 

 Images : GFS Mean Sea Level Pressure (hPa) for the next 10 days (top to bottom). Source: ClimateReanalyzer 

Why this week isn’t an outlier 

Across the wind speed anomaly composites for spring across three of the strongest El Niño years on record (1997, 2015 and 2023)  similar structure recurs in each. The maps below show a belt of reduced wind speed across southern and central Australia and the Tasman Sea, broadest and most consistent in 1997 and 2015, still visible in 2023. 

 Images: 10-metre wind speed anomaly (m/s) for spring during 1997 (top), 2015 (middle), and 2023 (bottom). Source: ClimateReanalyzer  

During these analogous years the SAM was either neutral to negative, showing that El Niño and the subsiding air it causes over Australia brings higher pressure and lower winds at the surface despite the SAM phase.  

How long is this likely to last?  

Forecast average-MSLP anomaly maps for the coming months suggest the low-wind pattern will continue through until around November. The map below show positive MSLP anomalies cover the whole continent for spring, influenced by the strong El Niño and positive SAM forecast.  

The set up above points to the low-wind, blocking-high pattern being at its strongest through spring, meaning this week is more likely the first of several wind lulls. 

DTN APAC provides tailored seasonal weather briefings and climate outlooks that help enterprises manage extreme weather risks across the Asia-Pacific region. These operational briefings focus on high-stakes weather phenomenon such as:

• Tropical cyclones,
• Bushfires,
• Extreme heatwaves, and
• Wind power for electricity networks heavily analysing key regional climate drivers like El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Learn more about our experts or how we can support your Renewables operation today.

The post A very low wind power week, likely to continue appeared first on DTN APAC.

Looking back at how the strongest El Niño events in Australian history have played out, it becomes apparent that mining operations in Australia should be planning for a later monsoon onset, a slower start to the wet season, and a quieter cyclone season than usual. 

A record-breaking start

The El Niño Southern Oscillation index flipped from La Niña phase to El Niño in a matter of months during 2026, with the Bureau of Meteorology’s relative Niño3.4 index climbing from -0.92°C in January to +1.84°C in August. That is the fastest January-to-August strengthening rate in 126 years of records- a jump of +2.76°C, well ahead of the previous record of +2.17°C set in 1997. 

Historical analogues suggest the event is still several months from its peak, which typically falls between November and January. Based on how comparable events (1902-03, 1982-83 and 1997-98) evolved after August, this El Niño could strengthen by another 0.5–1.5°C before peaking, potentially placing it among the strongest events ever recorded. The current record stands at +2.65°C (reconstructed relative Niño3.4 index), set during the 1902-03 event, with 1982-83 (+2.60°C) and 2015-16 (+2.39°C) rounding out the top three. 

The image below compares the monthly development of the 2026 event against these strongest analogues on record. At +1.84°C in August, 2026 is tracking below all of them at the same point in their development – meaning this event likely hasn’t peaked yet, with further strengthening typical before a November-January peak, followed by the sharp autumn/winter decline that all major El Niño events eventually share. 

Image: Monthly relative Niño3.4 index evolution of the 2026-27 event compared with some of the strongest El Niño events on record. Source: DTN 

What does this mean for Northern Australia’s monsoon timing?

For operators across the Pilbara, the Kimberley, the Northern Territory and North Queensland, the timing of the monsoon trough is one of the most consequential seasonal variables in the operating calendar. It governs haul road conditions, tailings and water management, dust suppression planning, rail and port loadout scheduling, and the workforce and logistics arrangements built around the wet season shutdown period. 

During El Niño years, the monsoon typically arrives later than the average onset date of late December, with some of the more extreme delays reaching mid-to-late January. El Niño years also typically bring below-average rainfall across northern Australia during the early wet season (October–December), before conditions move closer to average once the monsoon eventually arrives. Cyclone activity follows the same pattern: El Niño years typically bring a below-average number of tropical cyclones across the Australian region, with the first cyclone to cross the coast also tending to occur later than the typical early-January timing. 

El Niño has a well-documented tendency to delay the northern rainfall onset and push back the arrival of the monsoon trough – and the effect has been most pronounced during the strongest events on record, as shown below. 

The mechanism behind this is well understood: El Niño tends to keep the tropical Pacific’s rain-bearing convection anchored further east, while cooler waters and increased subsidence over northern Australia suppress the cloud and moisture buildup needed to trigger the monsoon trough. The result is typically below-average rainfall through the early wet season (October–December), with conditions closer to average – or occasionally wetter – once the monsoon does eventually arrive later in the season. 

However, the 1972–73 record shown above has since been broken. The 2024–25 wet season saw Darwin’s latest monsoon onset on record, arriving on 7 February 2025, more than a week later than the 1972–73 benchmark.  

This season was not a strong El Niño year (ENSO was neutral at the time); the Bureau of Meteorology attributed the delay specifically to unfavourable timing of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a separate tropical climate driver. It’s a useful reminder that while El Niño reliably pushes the odds toward a later monsoon, it isn’t the only mechanism that can delay it and the current event shouldn’t be assumed to break this record purely because it’s a strong El Niño. 

Cyclone activity historically subdued

Tropical cyclone frequency is also strongly linked to ENSO phase, as shown in the table above. El Niño years typically bring below-average cyclone numbers across the Australian region, along with a later first landfalling cyclone, often pushed back from early January into later in the season. Queensland in particular has historically been about half as likely to see a cyclone crossing during El Niño years compared with neutral conditions, though 1972–73 (15 cyclones) is a reminder that El Niño shifts the odds rather than guaranteeing a quiet season. 

The image below shows Australian region tropical cyclone totals from 1980 to 2026 against ENSO phase, illustrating how consistently El Niño seasons cluster below the long-term trend line, while La Niña seasons cluster above it.

It also shows a longer-term decline in cyclone numbers overall, at roughly one fewer cyclones every 11 years – worth factoring into long-range infrastructure and risk planning, independent of any single season’s ENSO state.

For operations dependent on cyclone-affected shipping windows, port closures and offshore logistics, a below-average cyclone season can mean fewer weather-related disruptions to loadout schedules. However, it doesn’t remove the risk of an individual high-impact system, and a slow start to the wet season can still be followed by intense, short-duration rainfall once the monsoon does arrive.  

Separately, while overall cyclone numbers are trending down, research indicates a shift toward proportionally more intense systems as sea surface temperatures rise—a pattern relevant to peak-event risk even as the total count declines. 

Lessons from past strong El Niño events

Beyond monsoon delay, the strongest El Niño events on record consistently carried compounding heat, drought and fire risk. The 1982–83 event produced Australia’s driest 11-month period on record across five states and territories, with the heat and drought conditions contributing to the Ash Wednesday bushfires.  

The image below shows rainfall deciles for the 1982-83 wet season (October 1982–April 1983). Widespread red areas across the Top End, Cape York and the eastern seaboard reflect severe drought. But a pocket of above-average to record rainfall through central/interior WA stands out as an exception—a pattern echoed in current 2026-27 spring outlooks, which similarly point to wetter conditions through central and western WA even as the east trends dry. 

Image: Wet season rainfall deciles between October 1, 1982, and April 30, 1983. Source: Bureau of meteorology 

The 1997–98 event brought Australia’s warmest summer on record at the time, while 2015–16 set a spring temperature record for southern Australia that still stands today. 

The current event’s early development most closely resembles 1997–98 and 1902-03, suggesting operators should plan for a similarly delayed, drier-than-average build-up to the wet season and above-average heat through spring and summer. 

For operators, this heat signal has direct workforce implications. The pre-monsoon build-up – which is typically the hottest, most humid stretch of the year in the north—already carries elevated heat-stress risk for outdoor and FIFO workers. A strong El Niño extends and intensifies that window, with above-average temperatures more likely to persist into and through summer rather than easing early. Reviewing heat management plans, hydration and work/rest protocols, and rostering flexibility for extreme-heat days ahead of the build-up is worth prioritising this season. 

What does this mean for operators in Mining and Resources?

With El Niño already in rare territory for this time of year, and unlikely to peak until closer to summer, mining and resources operators in the north should factor the following into wet season planning: 

• Extended dry-season conditions into October and November, with implications for dust management, water allocation and bushfire risk around inland and southern operations. 

• A likely delayed monsoon onset, pushing the bulk of wet season rainfall and the associated haul road, tailings and access disruptions later into the season, potentially into January. 

• A historically below-average cyclone season, which may reduce weather-related shipping and port disruptions, though isolated intense systems remain possible. 

• Elevated heat risk during the pre-monsoon build-up, a period historically associated with some of the highest workforce heat-stress risk of the year. 

As with any seasonal outlook, El Niño doesn’t act in isolation – the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Southern Annular Mode, the Madden Julian Oscillation and sea surface temperatures around the Australian coast will all influence exactly how this event plays out.  

But with the 2026–27 event already tracking as one of the fastest-strengthening on record, operators with exposure to northern Australia’s wet season logistics have good reason to start scenario-planning now. 

Talk to our DTN APAC experts about how you can stay ahead of major climate and weather risks for your business today with our industry-leading intelligence and services, including Seasonal Outlooks and Risk Communications. Reach out today at sales.apac@dtn.com

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The renewables share of the electricity market also hit a record high this winter, although it has been climbing almost every winter for a decade as new solar and wind farms come online. 

Mild winter 2026

Nationally, average temperatures ran 1.45°C above the 1961–1990 benchmark, the third-highest anomaly on record. The warmth was widespread, with almost the entire continent at least 1°C above average, but the map below shows one standout hotspot: a broad band across central Queensland and the Gulf country running around 2°C above average, well ahead of the rest of the country. 

Image: Maximum temperature anomalies, June–August 2026, relative to the long-term average. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. 

 Some other stand-out statistics from this winter were: 

• New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania each had their warmest winter since 1910. 

• Western Australia had its warmest winter on record at the state level. 

• Melbourne recorded its warmest winter since records began in the 1850s. 

• Snow cover hit a historic low, with Three-Mile Dam in Victoria holding just 5.5cm. 

The drivers behind the warm winter

Winter 2026 was driven mainly by a strong El Niño combined with a mostly positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which kept the belt of westerly winds and the cold fronts further south toward Antarctica for most of the season. This produced widespread warmth and the sluggish start to the snow season. However, there was one notable exception: in mid-to-late July, the SAM briefly flipped negative, allowing stronger cold fronts and storm systems to reach southern Australia and Tasmania, bringing a burst of rain and snow before the pattern shifted back later in the season. 

Mild winter didn’t flatten the demand peaks 

Typically, with a warmer winter, less heating is needed, lowering electricity demand. 

However, according to AEMO underlying demand across the National Electricity Market hit a new winter-quarter record of 24,220 megawatts, edging past the previous high set in 2025. Population growth, electrification of homes and vehicles, and the growing footprint of data centres kept pushing raw demand upward even as the weather worked to suppress it. 

The mild weather did flatten the energy peaks. Maximum operational demand, the moment the grid had to work hardest was 30,697 MW, nearly 2,000 MW (6.1%) below the previous winter’s peak, with every region recording a lower maximum.  

At the other end of the scale, Victoria and South Australia both set new record lows for minimum demand: Victoria’s trough fell to 1,986 MW, down 11% year-on-year, while South Australia’s collapsed to just 57 MW, down a striking 64%. Both records were set on mild, sunny days when rooftop solar was doing most of the work as mentioned above. 

The graph below shows how peak energy periods flattened despite the record demand, with maximum operational demand, Victoria’s minimum demand, and wholesale prices all lower in Q2 2026 than Q2 2025. 

Image: Q2 2025 vs 2026 demand extremes -maximum operational demand, Victoria’s minimum demand, and wholesale price. Source: Open Electricity and AEMO 

Gas had its quietest winter in 22 years

Gas output collapsed this winter. AEMO recorded an average generation rate of just 1,050 MW across the quarter -down 30% on last year. While the graph below shows that the total energy gas produced over the season came to 2,602 gigawatt hours, the lowest winter total in 22 years.  

Image: Winter gas generation, 1999–2026 (line). Source: Open Electricity and AEMO

Wind and solar capacity didn’t grow anywhere near enough to explain a drop that size; gas mainly exists to cover demand peaks, and this winter’s peaks were simply unusually small. 

Renewables hit a record contribution – a continuing trend

The renewables’ share of NEM generation hit a new winter high of 42.1%, up from 37.1% the year before. However, winter-on-winter increases of 3.5–4 percentage points have been normal for years, with similar jumps as new farms come online.  

Image: Renewables share, 1999–2026 (line). Source: Open Electricity and AEMO

Prices crashed with mild winter

NEM-wide wholesale electricity prices averaged $74 per megawatt hour for the winter quarter, down 47% year-on-year, which is too large a drop to attribute to steady renewables growth alone.  

Prices are set at the margin, and a flatter demand curve meant the expensive marginal generator (usually gas) got called on far less often. Victoria recorded the cheapest power in the country at $56/MWh, down 60% on the year before; New South Wales saw the single largest year-on-year drop of any region, at 53%. 

The contrast with recent history makes the scale of the drop clear, Winter 2022, averaged $308/MWh and four years later, the same season averaged less than a quarter of that. 

Image: Winter 2025 vs 2026 snapshot (renewables share, coal, gas, price, emissions intensity). Source: Open Electricity and AEMO

Overall, the renewables hitting a record share isn’t a weather story, it was the fact that more wind and solar farms come online each year. The impact of the warm winter did however remove the usual demand spikes that force gas plants to switch on. With smaller peaks and record-low troughs in Victoria and South Australia, gas simply wasn’t needed as much, pushing it to a 22-year low and dragging prices down 47%. 

Learn how DTN APAC supports the Energy sector today, including:

• Renewables (incl. Solar, Wind, and Hydro);
• Energy Trading and Risk; and
• Energy Power Networks and Utilities.

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This forecast could be a major flip to what the National Electricity Market (NEM) has experienced so far during Winter 2026. On 1 July 2026, the NEM set a new all-time wind generation record of 10,349 MW at the 21:20 dispatch interval – 190 MW above the previous record (10,159 MW, set in July 2025) – and that peak occurred with roughly 450 MW of wind still being curtailed at the time.  

Off the back of that run of records, the past week has shown signs of a potential lull with wind’s contribution easing back from the levels that produced July’s record-breaking peaks. Worth watching over the next few weeks to see whether this becomes the sustained light-wind pattern the spring outlook points to, or just normal week-to-week variability before wind picks back up. 

Understanding why comes down to one climate driver operating in the background all season – the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). 

What is the SAM? 

The Southern Annular Mode describes whether the belt of strong westerly winds circling Antarctica is contracted poleward (positive SAM) or expanded and shifted toward the mid-latitudes (negative SAM). It’s essentially the surface expression of the stratospheric polar vortex above it, when the vortex is strong and stable, the westerlies stay locked up close to Antarctica; when the vortex weakens, that wind belt loosens and pushes further north over the Australian mainland. 

For southeastern Australia, a positive SAM typically means: 

• Weaker, less frequent cold fronts and troughs crossing the mainland

• More persistent high-pressure ridging

• Calmer, lighter winds away from the mid-latitude storm track

• Warmer and drier conditions than average

A negative SAM does the opposite – it drags the storm track and its associated wind and rain further north over the country. 

Separately, El Niño has its own influence on SAM: it tends to push the SAM negative during spring and summer. So, the net outcome each spring depends on which the balance of El Niño. 

Past El Niño events impacting spring in 1997, 2015, and 2023

The last three springs that were in an El Niño phase, were 1997, 2015 and 2023 and during these years the SAM phase was varied.

Spring 1997 – strongly negative SAM.  

One of the most extreme El Niño events on record. El Niño dominated outright, driving the SAM strongly negative through spring running negative. 

Spring 2015 -offset, near-neutral SAM.  

This was also a strong El Niño year, but this time a robust, stable stratospheric polar vortex pushed back against El Niño’s usual negative pull. The two effects largely cancelled out, leaving SAM close to neutral rather than sharply negative – a case where the vortex meaningfully blunted the El Niño signal. 

Spring 2023 – negative, then flipping positive.  

SAM started negative in September, then swung strongly positive through November and December as an unusually large, long-lived ozone hole reinforced the polar vortex. El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole combined with that late-season positive SAM to produce Australia’s driest August–October on record. 

The maps below show that across all three years, the wind anomaly pattern over southern and central Australia was consistently lighter than average in spring, regardless of what SAM itself was doing.  

The charts above show that El Niño’s ridging and subsidence is a direct driver of the light-wind signal, with SAM acting more as a modulator of where that pattern sits and how far it extends.  

Why this spring 2026 looks different for Australia

Two things distinguish this year from the analogue set: 

1. A stable, largely undisturbed polar vortex through winter is pointing toward a positive SAM signal persisting into spring. 

1. A strong El Niño already in place, which independently drives subsidence and ridging over the Australian mainland. 

Rather than these two signals cancelling out (as in 2015), El Niño-driven subsidence and a positive-SAM-contracted storm track both point toward lighter winds and more persistent high pressure over the NEM footprint.  

The Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) forecast maps for September, October and November reflect this with high pressure sitting over southern Australia, showing El Niño’s subsidence and potential for a positive SAM phase. 

Images: September (top), October, November MSLP forecast maps. Source: DTN

Heatwave risk  

The patterns in the maps above can be a sign of heatwave risk, with high pressure systems blocking cold fronts or cooler airmasses from sweeping across the south of the country. 

The type of heatwave associated with a positive SAM / high pressure spring differs meaningfully from the heatwaves typical of La Niña years. La Niña heatwaves tend to be shorter, lower-intensity events, often broken up by the more active frontal and trough activity that comes with a more northerly storm track. Positive SAM / highpressure heatwaves, by contrast, are driven by persistent, blocking-style ridging that can sit in place for extended periods with little disruption from passing systems, allowing heat to build day over day rather than being flushed out by a front. That raises the risk of longer-duration, higher-intensity heat events. 

For the NEM, that combination-persistent high pressure, light winds, and the potential for sustained rather than short-lived heat is the scenario worth planning around. 

The impact on the energy market 

The same high pressure, light-wind pattern behind the heatwave risk also shapes the supply side: 

• Light winds reduce wind generation output across the NEM’s wind fleet, right in the period when high pressure and clear skies are most persistent. 

• Clear, settled conditions under that same ridging typically boost solar output through the middle of the day, although unusually warm seas surrounding Australia may produce more cloud and rain than during a typical El Niño. 

• Sustained heat, especially during blocking-pattern heatwaves, pushes demand up sharply in the evening as temperatures peak and solar output tails off into the net-demand ramp. 

The net effect is a spring where midday solar generation may be strong, but the market faces a wind generation shortfall exactly when extended heat events are most likely to push demand higher tightening the evening ramp period in particular. 

Uncertainty: the vortex can flip 

A stable vortex through winter is a genuinely useful lead indicator, but it isn’t a guarantee and this risk has become more relevant in recent years, not less. 

What is a sudden stratospheric warming?

It’s exactly what it sounds like: a rapid, dramatic spike in temperature high in the stratosphere above Antarctica – often 20–30°C in a matter of days caused by large-scale atmospheric waves from the troposphere disrupting the polar vortex.  

That warming decelerates or can even reverse the westerly winds that normally hold the vortex together, effectively breaking down the tight, contracted wind pattern associated with a stable, positive-SAM vortex.

The map below shows the potential vorticity or how air masses were spinning on August 5, 2024 during a Sudden Stratospheric warming event in the southern hemisphere. The polar vortex was elongated and weak over Antartica, and the flow was shaped like a peanut instead of a ball.

Image: Potential vorticity on August 05, 2024. Source: NASA

Historically, major Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) were considered rare with only two majors on record, in 2002 and 2019, roughly 17 years apart. But the pattern has shifted recently: 

• 2019 – a rapid vortex collapse in late August–September drove Antarctic stratospheric temperatures to record levels and pushed SAM sharply negative, contributing directly to the hot, dry conditions behind the 2019/20 Black Summer fires. 

• 2024 – two separate stratospheric warming events hit in quick succession (mid-July and early August), one of the earliest-season SSWs on record, each triggering a downward-propagating negative SAM signal. 

• 2025 – another late-winter/early-spring SSW developed through September, again pushing SAM negative and disrupting the seasonal outlook at the time. 

So rather than a once-in-a-generation event, the last few years have shown these disruptions occurring far more frequently than the historical baseline highlighting the fact that the vortex and stratospheric temperature need to be monitored.  

What this means for energy businesses in Australia

If you’re a wind generator, lighter than usual winds are forecast this season and unfortunately the lightest wind periods could align with peak demand. 

If you’re running solar, there’s some good news: clearer days under that high pressure (apart from the east coast) should help midday output. Although warmer than usual Indian Ocean waters could increase the tropical moisture feed throughout central Australia down to the southeast, which could at times bring northwest cloudbands.  

For retailers and traders, the evening is where the real risk sits -solar drops away right as demand peaks, with less wind to lean on. And because this kind of heatwave tends  

However, If the polar vortex gets disrupted, conditions could swing back toward a more normal, windier spring quickly and without much warning. This is something DTN APAC will continue to monitor and update clients in the coming season. 

Learn more about our weather solutions for the Energy sector

A warm start to spring 

A burst of warm air will sweep over NSW in the opening days of September, possibly giving Sydney its warmest start to spring in more than 50 years. 

This weather pattern is not unusual for spring. However, its timing could see some areas in NSW having their warmest start to spring in decades. 

Image: Modelled temperature anomalies on the afternoon of Wednesday, Se

 Sydney is currently forecast to reach 24–27°C between Tuesday and Thursday next week, which are the first three days of spring. This is around 4–7°C above average for this time of year. 

 The last time Sydney reached at least 24°C on the first three days of spring was in 1969. If the city’s temperature manages to climb above 24.8°C between Tuesday and Thursday next week, which is possible, it will be the city’s warmest start to spring in 161 years. 

 Other areas in eastern and southeastern Australia will also get a taste of the early-season warmth next week. 

Maximum temperatures in Melbourne and Adelaide are forecast to reach around 21–22°C next Tuesday, while Hobart should reach about 19°C. These temperatures are about 3–4°C above average for a September day. 

Forecasts for the remainder of spring suggest this warm streak will continue to impact the NEM. 

The post A warm, light wind spring ahead for the NEM appeared first on DTN APAC.

The image below shows vast cloud streaming over Luzon on Thursday, August 20, with the southwest monsoon remaining active over the region. Tropical Depression Neneng is tracking north-northwest toward Taiwan and is not expected to make landfall in the Philippines.  

Image: Himawari Satellite Satellite/Radar/Lightning view over the Philippines, 19 August 2026, 4:50PM UTC. Source: DTN. 

However, like Luis, Maymay and Dolphin earlier this month, Neneng’s circulation is pulling moisture into the monsoon, enhancing rainfall over the region. PAGASA is also monitoring two further systems outside its area of responsibility, including Tropical Storm Saudel to the east. 

The enhanced Habagat is causing heavy rain and flooding across Metro Manila and parts of Luzon today, with further heavy showers and thunderstorms likely to maintain flood risk over the next few days. 

What began in early August as a routine southwest monsoon surge compounded, storm on storm, into one of the country’s most damaging wet-season events in years.  

August so far: three systems

The enhanced Habagat, back-to-back typhoons Luis and Maymay (internationally Kujira), and the outer moisture envelope of a genuinely historic Typhoon Dolphin passing well to the north are all responsible for the extremely wet August. 

Tropical depression Luis (~2-4 August) 

Luis made landfall in Isabela, drenching eastern and western Luzon with moderate to heavy rain and triggering gale warnings across several coastal provinces before weakening into a low-pressure area. 

Tropical Storm Maymay / Kujira (~Aug 4–7) 

Maymay made landfall in Ilocos Sur, crossing northern Luzon and killing at least six people, displacing nearly 7,000, and causing widespread flooding and landslides, while also amplifying the Habagat. 

Super Typhoon Dolphin 2026 (7-10 August)

Typhoon Dolphin was a very strong category five system and set a record as the first storm of this strength to form the furthest east in the northwest Pacific. Dolphin spun up from a tropical depression to a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon in under four days over water that was 2 to 3°C warmer than the seasonal average, a rate of intensification that puts it among the fastest-strengthening storms on record for the basin.  

The winds in the system peaked at 265km/h sustained winds on July 30-31, 2026, one of the most powerful storms of the season with 13-metre waves. The image below shows Dolphin Barrelling towards east Asia to the north of Tawain on August 9 with vast cloud over parts of the Philippines feeding directly into the southwest monsoon, adding fuel to a system that was already overloaded by Luis and Maymay. It absorbed the moisture of the smaller Kujira as it tracked west, brushed Okinawa on August 7, and made landfall on the China coast between Zhejiang and Fujian on August 9–10. 

Image: NASA Worldview satellite imagery with Typhoon Dolphin passing to the north of the Philippines from August 9, 2026 

While Dolphin never made direct landfall in the Philippines, its sheer size and power triggered floods, landslides and widespread disruption.  

Tropical depression Neneng (~Aug 18–19) 

Tropical depression Neneng formed in the Philippine Sea but is tracking toward Taiwan and not expected to make landfall in the Philippines, though it is drawing in the Habagat and extending monsoon rains likely through the end of August. 

Why has August 2026 been so active?

The Philippines sits at the heart of the world’s most active typhoon basin, and August 2026 has been a particularly active month. Tropical Depression Luis, Tropical Storm Maymay, and Typhoon Dolphin struck in rapid succession within a single month, with each storm amplifying the southwest monsoon and delivering compounding waves of rainfall across Luzon. Maymay’s rains swelled rivers upstream of four dams in the Bulacan-Pampanga area, forcing emergency water releases into already-flooded communities. Driving this relentless parade of storms is an intensifying El Niño and anomalously warm sea surface temperatures which are feeding frequent tropical storm and typhoon activity.  

Image: Sea Surface temperature anomalies on August, 17, 2026. Source: NOAA 

Impacts

The compounding meteorological events up till mid-to-late August have led to the following impacts: 

• Deaths: Confirmed fatalities are at least 23 people, the majority in landslides in Benguet and Baguio City, with additional fatalities in Rizal, Batangas, La Union and Pangasinan from drowning, electrocution and rockslides. 

• People affected: NDRRMC’s mid-August situation report put the number at roughly 4.8 million people across ten regions of Luzon and the Visayas. 

• State of calamity: At least 50 cities and towns declared a state of calamity, with entire provinces such as Pampanga and Cavite placing every municipality under that status. 

• Infrastructure damage: Roughly ₱2.65 billion PHP, largely to roads, bridges and flood-control assets. 

• Agriculture: ₱1.42 billion PHP in losses across 34,572 hectares and more than 43,000 farmers, with rice absorbing well over half the damage. 

• Aviation: Recurring multi-day disruption at NAIA—dozens of flights cancelled or diverted on August 6, 8, 9, 10, 18 and 19 alone, with CAAP logging go-arounds, missed approaches and thousands of stranded passengers each time visibility or crosswinds crossed operational thresholds. 

• Ports and logistics: Hundreds of passengers, drivers and cargo workers stranded across dozens of seaports as interisland shipping was suspended. 

Impacts to major industries across the Philippines

Aviation 

NAIA’s repeated cycle of cancellations, diversions and go-arounds through August is a direct illustration of why generic forecasts fall short for airfield operations.  The difference between a routine delay and a missed approach often comes down to hyperlocal visibility, crosswind and lightning data at the specific runway threshold, updated in near-real time. 

Agriculture 

Rice crops have taken a large hit, with Cordillera vegetable farmers forced to discard entire harvests as trading centres flooded and produce rotted before it could move. With a strong El Niño now developing, the risk can flip within a matter of months: from too much water to potentially too little, as the dry season that follows an El Niño onset tends to run hotter and drier than normal across much of the archipelago. 

Mining and extractives

Benguet and the wider Cordillera mining regions are landslide prone.  Saturated slopes, stressed tailings and waste-dump stability, and road-access failure to remote sites are a recurring risk signature in this terrain whenever rainfall like Baguio’s nine-day total occurs. 

Transportation and logistics

Beyond the aviation disruption, road and bridge damage cut off communities and slowed the movement of relief goods and commercial freight alike, while interisland ferry and cargo operations were repeatedly suspended for rough seas. 

Energy and utilities

Downed trees and toppled utility poles caused outages in Zambales, Subic, Castillejos and San Antonio, a pattern that recurs across nearly every major habagat and typhoon event and complicates restoration timelines when access roads are also flooded or landslide blocked. 

DTN Weather Hub for Airport Operations 

The same complex, location-specific threat picture described in this analysis – typhoon rapid intensification, monsoon-driven visibility loss, crosswind events, and lightning – is precisely the operational environment DTN Weather Hub is built for.  

Airport operators across the region rely on DTN APAC for hyperlocal airfield monitoring, configurable lightning and threshold alerts, role-based decision dashboards, and a defensible post-event record, all accessible by field teams on mobile. We provide: 

• Lightning detection and alerting;

• Visibility and crosswind Intelligence;

• Hyperlocal airfield monitoring;

• Mobile access for field teams; and

• Post-event documentation. 

When the weather signal is this complex, generic forecasts aren’t enough. DTN Weather Hub delivers the operational precision airports need to keep people and infrastructure safe. Reach out to our experts today at sales.apac@dtn.com for an exclusive demo.

The post Habagat and successive typhoons trigger widespread flooding in the Philippines appeared first on DTN APAC.

The outlook identifies above-average fire danger across seven states and territories, with conditions driven by a combination of elevated fuel loads, an El Niño event declared by the Bureau of Meteorology in June 2026, and rainfall deficiencies persisting across multiple regions.

Why spring is an active time of year for fires in Australia

Spring is typically a time of year when northern Australia is in the peak of its fire season, while conditions are also becoming more conducive to fires in Australia’s central latitudes and in some parts of southern Australia.

This southward progression of fire danger during spring occurs as temperatures rise across the country, while vegetation that dried out in winter and early spring increases fire fuel loads outside the tropics.

Image: Peak fire seasons in Australia. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

What can we expect this spring?

Spring 2026 will be influenced by a very strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean – a climate driver that typically promotes abnormally warm and dry weather over large areas of Australia during spring. Above average sea surface temperatures surrounding most of Australia will also influence rain and storm potential throughout the season.

According to the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services (AFAC), there will be an increased risk of bushfires in southeastern NSW, southeast Queensland, northeastern Tasmania, parts of WA, SA and Victoria, and large parts of the NT this spring.

Image: Spring 2026 bushfire outlook. Red areas on the map have an increased risk of fires this spring, while the rest of the map has an average risk of fires for this time of year. Source: AFAC.

Eastern and southeastern Australia

A broad area of northeast NSW and southern Qld experienced a drier and warmer than average start to 2026. During the 7-month period from January to July, rainfall was in the lowest 10% of historical records for inland areas of southern Qld and northeast NSW. This caused a depletion in root-zone soil moisture, which has enhanced evaporation stress and contributed to increased curing (the drying out of vegetation) and fuel availability heading into the start of spring.

Image: Observed rainfall deciles during the first seven months of 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

The last few months have also been abnormally dry in southeast NSW and parts of eastern Vic, resulting in very much below-average root zone soil moisture (lowest 10% of historical records).

In addition to this dryness, temperatures were also above average across large areas of Australia in the last three months, with a broad area of southeastern Australia registering its warmest May-to-July period on record.

Image: Mean temperature deciles for the three month period from May to July 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, this spring is likely to be warmer and drier than average for parts of eastern and southeastern Australia, with ongoing root zone soil moisture deficiencies likely to persist across these regions.

This outlook suggests that parts of eastern and southeastern Australia will experience ongoing drying of fuel loads in the coming months, which should be enhanced by above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall in some areas.

The AFAC outlook highlights southern inland Qld, northern inland NSW, southeast NSW, parts of southern and eastern Vic and northeast Tas as areas that will have an increased risk of fires this spring.

Central Australia

A broad area of central Australia is forecast to have an increased risk of fires in the next few months, extending over parts of SA and up through the NT as far north as the Barkly and Gregory districts.

In the north, this elevated fire risk is due to the Top End fire season likely extending longer than usual due to a delayed wet season onset. Further south, an abundance of drying vegetation following above-average rain earlier this year is expected to supply ample fuel for fires in the coming months.

According to the AFAC, “fire activity is likely to contract southwards from November, with the Barkly and Tanami districts entering their peak fire danger period in October and November.”

“Across Central Australia, above average temperatures and extensive long-unburnt fuels in the Simpson Desert region towards the NT, Queensland and SA borders are expected to support above average fire potential from September.”

Image: Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature during October 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone.

Western Australia

Pockets of WA are expected to have an increased risk of fires this spring, primarily due to above average fuel loads and dry soil conditions, combined with below-average spring rainfall predicted in the state’s southwest.

In the state’s northwest, the Cape Range, Wooramel, Western Murchison, Geraldton Hills, and Yalgoo bioregions are highlighted as areas that could see enhanced fire activity due to increased fuel loads associated with growth caused by rain from recent ex-tropical cyclones.

The southern Geraldton Sandplains, Swan Coastal Plain, Jarrah Forest, and Warren bioregions are also predicted to see above average fire potential in late-spring, with below-average rain expected to enhance soil moisture deficiencies towards the end of the season.

Image: Chance of exceeding median rainfall during October 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone.

What does ‘enhanced fire risk’ actually mean?

It is important to point out that fires can occur in any part of Australia, even in areas that are not predicted to have an increased risk of fires this spring.

The AFAC defines an increased risk of fire as: “The likelihood of an increased number of significant bushfires occurring in the outlook period compared to the average risk. Risk depends on factors including weather and climate, fuels, recent fire history, natural and human barriers, and the speed and effectiveness of fire suppression.”

Read More: Turn risk into readiness across your APAC operations ahead of the fire season

What this means for agencies and land managers

The AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook reinforces what fire and land management agencies already know: weather intelligence is not optional, it is the foundation of every operational decision. From prescribed burning windows and aviation dispatch to crew pre-positioning and public warnings, the ability to act on accurate, high-resolution forecast data is what separates proactive preparedness from reactive response.

Critically, no two El Niños are the same. The true character of this season will be determined by a range of interacting climate drivers, including the Southern Annular Mode, sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the polar vortex and tropical wave patterns. The DTN APAC climate briefings translate this complexity into clear, operationally relevant guidance for agencies and land managers.

DTN APAC offers weather intelligence and fire weather solutions to support fire agencies, forestry operations, and emergency management organisations across Australia and New Zealand. Our high-resolution forecasting and decision-support tools help agencies move from awareness to action, before conditions deteriorate.

Learn more about our solutions for Forestry and Emergency.

The post Australia’s Spring 2026 Bushfire Outlook: Increased Risk Across Seven States and Territories appeared first on DTN APAC.